Nike Stock Surges 15% as Golden Cross Signals Bullish Momentum

Technical Analysis: NIKE (NKE)
Candlestick Theory
NIKE's most recent session formed a large bullish candle with a 15.24% surge, closing near the high ($72.07) after testing intraday resistance at $74.19. This follows a two-day bullish engulfing pattern, signaling strong buying momentum. Key support now resides near the breakout point at $65 (prior resistance from April), while immediate resistance is established at $74.19. A closing break above $74.19 could target $80, though exhaustion gaps after rapid rallies warrant caution.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (currently ~$68) is poised to cross above the 200-day MA (~$70), suggesting a potential "golden cross" and reinforcing a nascent long-term uptrend. The current price ($72.07) trades above all key MAs (50, 100, 200-day), confirming bullish alignment. However, the steep 18.48% two-day jump leaves NIKE significantly extended above its 50-day MA, increasing near-term pullback risk toward the $68–$70 confluence zone (50/200-day MAs).
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD shows a strengthening bullish crossover, with the histogram expanding above the signal line, supporting upward momentum. KDJ indicators exhibit overbought conditions (K: 88, D: 82, J: 100), signaling near-term exhaustion. While both oscillators agree on short-term strength, the KDJ’s extreme levels suggest consolidation or a minor retracement is likely before further upside.
Bollinger Bands
NIKE’s price breached the upper Bollinger Band ($68.50) during the 15% surge, indicating overextension. The bands expanded sharply during the rally, reflecting elevated volatility. A reversion toward the 20-day moving average (mid-band, ~$65) would align with typical band dynamics. Sustained closes outside the upper band are rare, supporting a probabilistic near-term pullback.
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakout was validated by record volume (99.3M shares vs. 30-day avg. ~35M), confirming institutional participation. However, climactic volume often precedes short-term tops. Subsequent sessions must sustain above-average volume to uphold the breakout; declining volume on further gains would signal weakening momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (calculated at 72) approaches overbought territory (>70) but hasn’t breached it decisively. While this warns of overheating, RSI divergences lack context during strong trend accelerations. The current reading may limit near-term upside but doesn’t invalidate the broader uptrend unless sustained above 75.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the downtrend from the 2024-10-01 high ($89.13) to the 2025-04-09 low ($53.27):
- The 38.2% retracement level ($67.50) was breached decisively.
- The 50% level ($71.20) now acts as support.
- The 61.8% level ($74.92) aligns with the recent high ($74.19), creating a logical resistance target.
Confluence & Divergences
- Confluence: The breakout above $65 coincides with Fibonacci support (38.2%), moving average alignment (price > all MAs), and volume validation. This strengthens the bullish case.
- Divergence: KDJ’s overbought signal conflicts with MACD’s bullish momentum, suggesting near-term consolidation. Meanwhile, RSI caution contrasts with Bollinger Band expansion, indicating volatility-driven uncertainty.
Conclusion
NIKE exhibits robust bullish momentum, validated by volume, moving averages, and MACD. However, overbought oscillators (KDJ, RSI), Bollinger Band expansion, and Fibonacci resistance near $74.19–$74.92 increase near-term pullback probability. Traders might seek entries near $70 (50-day MA/Fibonacci 50%) or $68 (200-day MA) for trend-aligned opportunities. A sustained break above $75 would target $80, while failure to hold $70 could retest $65 support.
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Disclaimer: Technical analysis reflects probabilistic outcomes based on historical patterns and should be combined with fundamental context and risk management. Past performance does not guarantee future results.