Nigeria’s Political Stability and Equity Markets: Why Tinubu’s Re-Election Signals a Golden Opportunity

Nigeria’s political landscape is undergoing a pivotal transformation, with President Bola Tinubu’s re-election momentum offering investors a rare chance to capitalize on policy continuity and reduced uncertainty. As Tinubu secures endorsements from 22 APC governors and crosses party lines to align with progressive leaders like Anambra’s Governor Chukwuma Soludo, the equity market stands poised for growth. This article examines how Tinubu’s political stability creates tailwinds for sectors like banking, oil, and infrastructure—sectors that are already showing signs of resilience.

The Political Backdrop: Tinubu’s Unshakable Grip on Power

Tinubu’s recent visit to Anambra—where he praised Governor Soludo’s infrastructure projects—sent a clear signal: his administration is prioritizing cross-party collaboration to drive growth. By endorsing Soludo’s re-election bid, Tinubu has quelled internal APC dissent and solidified a coalition that spans northern and southern Nigeria. The Progressive Governors Forum’s May 2024 endorsement of Tinubu as the 2027 presidential candidate underscores this unity. With opposition parties like the PDP and LP hemorrhaging members to the APC, the political environment is stabilizing, reducing the risk of abrupt policy shifts.

This stability is critical for investors.

Sector Spotlight: Banking – A Foundation for Economic Recovery

Nigeria’s banking sector is the first beneficiary of political continuity. With Tinubu’s focus on infrastructure and fiscal reforms, loan demand for projects like road upgrades and power plants is surging.

• Key Catalyst: The $170 billion allocated to dualize trunk roads under Tinubu’s infrastructure plan will boost construction activity, directly benefiting banks like Zenith Bank and GTBank, which dominate corporate lending.
• Performance: Despite inflationary pressures, Nigerian banks’ net interest margins remain robust.

Oil & Gas – Navigating Volatility with Policy Certainty

While Nigeria’s oil sector faces headwinds—such as production dips and refinery underperformance—Tinubu’s reforms offer a path forward.

• Policy Gains: The National Petroleum Regulatory Commission’s push to boost output to 4 mbpd by 2030 aligns with Tinubu’s goal of ending fuel imports. Progress on this front will stabilize the naira and reduce inflation.
• Investment Play: Companies like Dangote Refining & Marketing (though not listed separately, part of Dangote Cement’s ecosystem) stand to gain as feedstock shortages ease. Meanwhile,

Infrastructure – The Engine of Long-Term Growth

Tinubu’s infrastructure agenda is a masterstroke for equity investors. Projects like the Emeka Anyaoku Centre and Anambra’s road upgrades signal a commitment to public-private partnerships (PPPs), which will attract capital to construction firms and real estate.

• Market Catalyst: The $3.2 billion allocated to roads and power in 2025 has already spurred interest from international investors.
• Risks Mitigated: With Tinubu’s alignment with states like Anambra, regional conflicts (e.g., in Rivers) are less likely to derail projects.

Why Act Now? Timing the Nigerian Rebound

The window for investing in Nigeria’s equity market is narrowing. Key metrics suggest a cyclical upturn:

1. Valuation: The NGX All-Share Index trades at a 10-year low P/E ratio of 8.5x, offering a discount to emerging markets.
2. Interest Rate Cuts: The CBN’s pending reduction in the MPR (from 27.5% to 25% by year-end) will ease borrowing costs and boost liquidity.
3. Foreign Inflows: FPI inflows hit a four-year high of $14 billion in 2024, signaling confidence in Tinubu’s stability.

Conclusion: A Call to Invest in Nigeria’s Future

Tinubu’s re-election momentum is not just a political win—it’s an economic catalyst. With policy continuity reducing risks, sectors like banking, oil, and infrastructure are primed for growth. Investors who act now can secure positions in undervalued equities, benefiting from both short-term stabilization and long-term structural reforms.

Action Items:
- Allocate to Nigerian banks via ETFs like the Nigerian Equity Fund (NEQF).
- Target infrastructure stocks through the NGX Infrastructure Index.
- Monitor oil production metrics—when output exceeds 1.7 mbpd, consider adding energy sector exposure.

Nigeria’s equity market is at an inflection point. The question is not whether to invest, but how quickly you can act.