NFLX Options Signal Deep Put Pressure at $95: A Bearish Play for Dec 19 Expiry?

• NFLX down 4.2% at $95.99, breaking below key 30D support at $100.24
• Put/Call OI ratio at 1.16 (puts dominate), with $95 puts (OI: 27,743) as top next-week bet
• Warner Bros. acquisition sparks analyst downgrades, regulatory risks, and Paramount's hostile bid

The market is whispering: Netflix’s stock isn’t just falling—it’s being pushed down by institutional puts. With puts at $95 and $94.5 commanding massive open interest ahead of Dec 19 expiry, options traders are hedging a sharp drop. Here’s how to navigate this bearish setup.Bearish OI Clusters: A Whale’s Warning

Take a look at the options chain: next Friday’s $95 puts (NFLX20251219P95) lead with 27,743 open contracts—nearly triple the nearest rival. That’s not random. Big money is positioning for a breakdown below $95, especially with RSI at 1.1 and MACD (-254) confirming a death cross. The $91 puts (OI: 9,169) this week also hint at short-term panic, but the real story is the $95 level. Why? It’s just 0.6% above today’s price, making it a prime target for forced liquidation if the stock gaps lower.

But don’t ignore the calls. While call OI is lower (1.16 ratio edge to puts), the $120 calls (OI: 50,130) for Dec 19 suggest some bullish bets. However, with NFLX trading 4.5% below its 200D MA ($1,066.91), those calls feel like long shots. The risk? If the stock rallies above $100.24 (previous close), short-sellers could scramble, creating a volatile bounce. But given the news flow? That’s a stretch.

Warner Bros. Drama: Fuel for the Bear

The acquisition isn’t just a headline—it’s a catalyst. Analysts are downgrading NFLX to “Hold” or “Neutral” left and right, and for good reason. The $82.7B price tag, regulatory hurdles, and Paramount’s hostile bid have created a perfect storm. Here’s the kicker: the deal requires spinning off Warner Bros. Discovery’s Global Networks, delaying closure until Q3 2026. That’s 18 months of uncertainty, and markets hate uncertainty. Combine that with Trump’s antitrust warnings and union pushback, and you’ve got a recipe for prolonged selling pressure.

Actionable Plays: Short the Drama, Hedge the Risk

For options traders: Buy NFLX20251219P95 puts at $95.99. With 27,743 contracts in play, this strike is a magnet for liquidity. If NFLX closes below $95 by Dec 19, these puts could run. For a safer bet, consider a put spread: sell NFLX20251219P91 (OI: 9,169) to cap risk while buying the $95 puts. The max loss? $4/share if the stock rallies.

Stock traders: Consider a short near $98 (just above today’s low of $95.30). Place a stop-loss at $101 (previous close) to avoid getting whipsawed if the stock bounces. If you’re bullish on a rebound, a call spread between $95 and $100 could work—buy NFLX20251219C95 and sell NFLX20251219C100. It’s a tight window, but the news flow makes it a high-probability play.

Volatility on the Horizon: Bear Market Chess

This isn’t just about NFLX—it’s a case study in how M&A drama turns stocks into volatility bombs. With puts stacked at $95 and the stock already testing support, the next 5 days (Dec 8–12) will be critical. If NFLX holds above $95, the bear case weakens. But if it breaks below $94.5 (next key level), the puts could ignite a cascade. Either way, the Dec 19 expiry offers a clear timeline to act.

The bottom line? Netflix’s options market is screaming “risk off.” Whether you’re shorting the drama or hedging with puts, the $95 level is your guide. Stay close to the data, and don’t let the headlines cloud your strategy.