NEXOUSDT Market Overview: Nexo/Tether on 2025-11-03

• Price traded between $1.106 and $1.131, closing near the lower end of the range with weak momentum.
• Elevated volume driven by a sharp sell-off after 01:30 ET, with turnover surging on the downside.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, but price remains below key moving averages.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility contraction ahead of the post-liquidity-hour rebound.
• No strong bullish patterns identified, but Fibonacci 61.8% support at ~$1.110 appears resilient so far.

The Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) pair opened at $1.125 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $1.107 by 12:00 ET the next day after trading as high as $1.131 and as low as $1.106. The 24-hour volume totaled approximately 883,313.35 units, with a notional turnover of $979,525.50. Price action displayed a bearish bias after a midday rebound failed to hold above key resistance.

Structure & Formations

Price action featured a large bearish engulfing pattern near $1.125–$1.123 around 20:00 ET, followed by a series of lower lows and higher lows after 01:30 ET, suggesting weakening bullish conviction. A doji formed around 02:30 ET, highlighting indecision before a sharp drop to $1.106. Support levels around $1.110–$1.112 held during multiple attempts to break below, offering a potential floor for short-term buyers.

Moving Averages & Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, reinforcing the downtrend. The 50-period SMA currently sits near $1.120, while the 20-period is closer to $1.115, suggesting a continuation of the bearish bias. RSI-14 fell below 30 during the sharp sell-off from $1.130 to $1.106, indicating oversold conditions, though price has yet to show a convincing reversal.

MACD crossed below the signal line earlier in the session, confirming the bearish momentum. However, the histogram has shown slight narrowing, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing. The pair remains below the 50-period daily SMA, which sits near $1.125–$1.127, reinforcing the bearish sentiment for the broader timeframe.

Volatility & Volume

Bollinger Bands narrowed ahead of the sharp sell-off, indicating a potential breakout or reversal. Price broke below the lower band during the 02:30–03:15 ET window, signaling increased volatility. The most recent 15-minute candle showed a 1.7% drop from open to close, with volume spiking to over 80,000 units during the 01:30–02:15 ET period.

Volume was unevenly distributed, with significant selling pressure emerging after 01:30 ET and relatively subdued buying after 06:00 ET. Notional turnover also surged during the bearish phase, aligning with price movement and suggesting conviction from larger players.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 1.106–1.131 swing show the 61.8% level at ~$1.115 as the immediate support target. The 38.2% level at ~$1.121 appears to have failed during the overnight sell-off. On the daily chart, the 50–61.8% Fibonacci levels remain untested but suggest potential support between $1.100 and $1.110, depending on broader market conditions.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-14 indicator showed a clear oversold signal during the sharp sell-off from $1.131 to $1.106, dropping below 30 for multiple periods. A backtesting strategy based on RSI < 30 on a 14-period setting could be used to identify potential entry points for long positions, assuming a fixed 3-day holding period. However, the lack of clear reversal signs and continued bearish momentum from the 50-period SMA suggest that additional risk controls—such as a trailing stop-loss or early exit on further weakness—may improve strategy performance.