Newton Protocol/Tether (NEWTUSDT) Market Overview

• Price fell 9.9% from 0.253 to 0.2205 over 24 hours, reaching a new intra-day low.
• Momentum turned bearish as RSI dropped into oversold territory and MACD crossed below signal line.
• Volatility surged, with Bollinger Bands widening, and turnover spiked in the late ET session.
• A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed early in the 15-minute chart, followed by a prolonged downtrend.
• Downtrend confirmed by volume surges during sharp declines, especially after 02:00 ET.

The Newton Protocol/Tether pair (NEWTUSDT) opened at 0.253 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.2205 on 2025-09-22 at the same time. The 24-hour range spanned from 0.2554 (high) to 0.2196 (low), with total volume amounting to 5,780,334.5 and total notional turnover reaching 1,375,812.1 USD. The pair entered a strong bearish phase marked by a sharp sell-off and elevated trading activity.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a strong bearish reversal pattern forming in the early hours of the session, with a large bearish engulfing candle at 16:00 ET on 2025-09-21. A doji formed at 05:15 ET on 2025-09-22, indicating a pause in the downtrend, but it failed to hold, leading to further declines. Key support levels identified include 0.2263 (psychological round figure), 0.2196 (intraday low), and 0.215 (potential Fibonacci extension). Resistance levels above 0.2285 and 0.2315 appear to be critical for near-term reversal chances.

Moving Averages

Using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, price has remained well below both, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is likely above 0.2500, placing price in a deeper bearish territory relative to longer-term trendlines. The 200-day MA would likely be a strong resistance zone if the pair retraces higher.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line late on 2025-09-21, confirming the bearish momentum. The histogram has remained bearish since, with divergence observed between price and RSI as price continued to fall while RSI dipped into oversold territory (~25–30). This suggests the potential for a near-term bounce but does not signal trend reversal. RSI remains below 30 for much of the session, indicating oversold conditions that may invite short-term buyers.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the early hours of the sell-off, indicating a rise in volatility. Price has remained well below the 20-period moving average throughout the session, with the upper band at ~0.255 and the lower band at ~0.215. The current price is near the lower band, suggesting high volatility and the likelihood of consolidation or a short-term rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during sharp price declines, particularly between 02:00 ET and 06:00 ET, with notional turnover surging after 06:15 ET as price dropped below 0.2300. This confirms the strength of the bearish move. However, volume has since decreased, suggesting exhaustion or uncertainty in the market. A divergence between price and volume may emerge if price continues to fall without fresh selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.254 to 0.2205, key levels include 0.2412 (38.2%), 0.2325 (50%), and 0.2245 (61.8%). The pair has tested 0.2263 and 0.2285, which align with 61.8% and 50% retracement levels. If price fails to hold above these levels, further tests of the 0.215–0.2196 range could be expected.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish bias and the emergence of strong support levels near 0.2196 and 0.2263, a backtesting strategy could focus on short-term countertrend trades. One hypothesis would be to enter a long position on a confirmed bounce above 0.2263 with a stop-loss below 0.2210 and a target at 0.2300. Alternatively, a short trade could be initiated upon a break below 0.2196 with a target at 0.215 and a stop-loss above 0.2225. This would test the robustness of Fibonacci and support/resistance levels observed, while leveraging RSI and MACD divergence as entry and exit signals.

The market appears to be in a bearish consolidation phase, with key support levels likely to be tested over the next 24 hours. While oversold conditions may invite a short-term rebound, the strong bearish momentum and large volume declines suggest a high probability of continued pressure. Investors should remain cautious, especially if the 0.2205 low is not respected.