Newmont (NEM) sube un 3,48% en medio de un rally de oro y ventas estratégicas: ¿Es este el inicio de una estabilidad?

Summary
• Newmont (NEM) trades at $104.82, up 3.48% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $105.67
• Gold prices hit record highs amid geopolitical tensions and rate-cut expectations, with GDX ETF surging 3.63%
• NEM’s strategic divestitures and $3B in after-tax proceeds fuel investor optimism

Newmont’s sharp intraday rally aligns with a broader gold sector boom driven by safe-haven demand and dovish Fed signals. The stock’s 3.48% surge reflects both macroeconomic tailwinds and company-specific catalysts, including asset sales and production ramp-ups at Ahafo North. With gold prices near $4,430/oz and ETFs like GDX surging, NEM’s momentum suggests a pivotal moment for gold miners.

Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal and Strategic Divestitures Fuel Newmont's Surge
Newmont’s 3.48% intraday gain is directly tied to the gold market’s record rally, driven by geopolitical tensions, U.S. dollar weakness, and expectations of further Fed rate cuts. Sector-wide, gold prices have surged 65% this year, with central banks and ETFs buying aggressively. Newmont’s strategic divestitures—selling non-core assets for $3B in after-tax proceeds—have sharpened its focus on Tier-1 operations, boosting liquidity to $9.6B. Additionally, the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana is ramping up production, offsetting declines at other sites. These factors, combined with a 1.0% dividend yield and strong cash flow, have attracted both institutional and retail investors.

Gold Miners Rally as Geopolitical Tensions and Rate Cuts Drive Safe-Haven Demand
The gold sector is outperforming broader markets, with the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) up 3.7% and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) surging 3.63%. Newmont’s 3.48% gain mirrors Kinross Gold (KGC)’s 2.45% rally, as both benefit from gold’s record prices. KGC, with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), has outperformed NEM’s 3 (Hold) due to stronger earnings revisions and a lower P/E. However, NEM’s strategic divestitures and production visibility at Ahafo North position it to close the gap as gold remains near multi-decade highs.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Newmont's Momentum
• MACD: 3.60 (bullish), Signal Line: 2.88, Histogram: 0.73 (positive divergence)
• RSI: 70.25 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: Price at $104.82 (above upper band of $103.71)
• 200-day MA: $68.12 (far below), 30-day MA: $91.27 (support)

Newmont’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend, with RSI near overbought levels and MACD divergence indicating momentum. The stock is trading above its 30-day MA and near the upper Bollinger Band, signaling a potential continuation. For leveraged exposure, the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) and VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) offer amplified gains.

Top Options:
• NEM20251226C105 (Call, $105 strike, 2025-12-26):
- IV: 31.63% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 70.36%, Delta: 0.495, Theta: -0.4707, Gamma: 0.1028, Turnover: 487,886
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($110.06), payoff = $5.06/share. This call offers high leverage and gamma, ideal for a continuation of the rally.
• NEM20251226C106 (Call, $106 strike, 2025-12-26):
- IV: 30.99%, Leverage Ratio: 101.78%, Delta: 0.392, Theta: -0.3973, Gamma: 0.1010, Turnover: 41,829
- Payoff: At 5% upside, payoff = $4.06/share. This contract balances liquidity and leverage, with strong gamma for price sensitivity.

Aggressive bulls should target NEM20251226C105 into a break above $105.67 (52-week high). Conservative traders may use NEM20251226C106 as a lower-risk leveraged play.

Backtest Newmont Stock Performance
The backtest of NEM's performance after a 3% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-day win rate is 53.33%, the 10-day win rate is 57.58%, and the 30-day win rate is 61.82%, indicating that NEM tends to experience positive returns in the short term following the intraday surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 4.73%, which occurred on day 57, suggesting that there is potential for gains but also the possibility of fluctuations in the stock's price.

Newmont's Bullish Momentum – Time to Ride the Gold Wave?
Newmont’s 3.48% surge is a microcosm of the gold sector’s explosive rally, driven by macroeconomic tailwinds and strategic clarity. With gold near $4,430/oz and ETFs like GDX surging, NEM’s momentum appears sustainable in the near term. Key levels to watch include the 52-week high of $105.67 and the 30-day MA at $91.27. Investors should also monitor KGC’s 2.45% gain as a sector barometer. For immediate action, consider GDX for leveraged exposure or NEM20251226C105 for a high-gamma call. Watch for a break above $105.67 to confirm the bullish trend.