Nervos Network/Tether Market Overview: Volatility and Momentum Surge

• Price for Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) surged to a 24-hour high near 0.005204 before retracing.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the second half of the day, with a key breakout above 0.005150.
• RSI and MACD show rising momentum, suggesting potential for a follow-through move.
• Volume spiked in the 08:00–10:00 ET range, confirming the upward thrust.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged post-breakout, hinting at a potential trend reversal.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened on 2025-09-15 at 0.005051 and reached a 24-hour high of 0.005204 before closing at 0.005150 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 0.005011 and 0.005204 over the period. Total trading volume amounted to 77,641,410, with a notional turnover (volume × price) of approximately $396,100, indicating elevated interest.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a strong bullish shift in the morning of 2025-09-16 as CKB/USDT broke above a key psychological level at 0.005150. A bullish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart, with a long bullish body following a bearish close. This suggests a short-term trend reversal. Notably, a key support level at 0.005050 was tested multiple times during the session, with price bouncing off it after a few attempts, indicating its relevance. A potential resistance zone is forming near 0.005180–0.005200, where the pair has stalled on multiple occasions.

A Doji formed on the 09:45 candle, indicating indecision, but it was quickly followed by a strong bullish reversal, suggesting sellers had weakened.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, forming a golden cross, a bullish signal. The 50-period MA was above the 100-period and 200-period MAs on the daily chart, suggesting a positive bias in the intermediate term. Price has been trading above both the 50 and 100-period MAs for the past 24 hours, indicating a stronger-than-expected bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line at the 06:00–08:00 ET range and remained in positive territory, confirming a bullish momentum shift. The RSI moved into overbought territory (above 60) during the morning session, peaking near 65 before retreating slightly. This suggests a strong short-term move, though it may caution against further overextensions without a pullback. The RSI is currently hovering just below overbought levels at ~59, indicating continued strength without immediate signs of exhaustion.

The divergence between RSI and price was observed between 03:00–05:00 ET, where price made lower lows while RSI bottomed out, hinting at a potential reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands were widening throughout the morning, reflecting an increase in volatility. At the time of writing, price was trading near the upper band, which supports the view of a bullish continuation. A contraction in band width was observed between 03:00–04:30 ET, signaling a period of consolidation that preceded the breakout. If price remains above the 0.005140 level (middle band), the bullish momentum may continue, with the next target near 0.005230.

Volume & Turnover

Volume saw a sharp increase from 06:00–10:00 ET, coinciding with the breakout above 0.005150. This confirms the strength of the move. The volume on the bullish breakout candle was over 2.7 million, significantly higher than the average for the day. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, reinforcing the legitimacy of the move. A divergence occurred between price and volume between 02:00–04:00 ET, where price made lower lows but volume did not confirm bearish strength, hinting at a possible reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.005011 to 0.005204, key retracement levels include 0.005120 (38.2%) and 0.005068 (61.8%). Price found temporary resistance at the 38.2% level but broke through it on the morning of 2025-09-16. A retest of the 61.8% level may act as a support zone in the coming days.

Backtest Hypothesis

The current technical setup aligns with a breakout strategy that triggers long entries when price closes above the 0.005150 level on a 15-minute chart, with a stop loss placed below the 0.005120 Fibonacci retracement level. The strategy assumes a 20-period EMA as a dynamic support line and uses the MACD crossover as a confirmation signal. If successful, this strategy could target a take-profit level at 0.005230, with a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:1.5. Historical data shows similar setups have yielded favorable outcomes when combined with high volume and RSI divergence.

Looking ahead, CKB/USDT appears to have momentum in favor of higher prices, particularly if the breakout level at 0.005150 holds. However, investors should remain cautious for any signs of a breakdown or overbought exhaustion in the near term. A pullback test of the 0.005140–0.005120 zone could be a key risk to watch for in the next 24 hours.