Nervos Network/Tether Market Overview (CKBUSDT) – 2025-09-19

• Price opened at $0.005245 and closed at $0.005038, showing a bearish 24-hour trend.
• Volatility spiked mid-session, with a 0.53% range reached in early ET hours.
• A long upper shadow and bearish engulfing pattern emerged during 09:00–10:00 ET.
• RSI crossed below 30 in late session, suggesting oversold conditions.
• Turnover surged in early morning ET before declining into the afternoon.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at $0.005245 (12:00 ET – 1) and closed at $0.005038 by 12:00 ET. The pair touched a high of $0.0053 and a low of $0.005014 during the period. Total traded volume was 70,679,102.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $358,645. The price action displayed a clear downtrend, with bearish momentum intensifying in the latter half of the session.

The structure of the price path reveals a breakdown from a key 15-minute resistance level near $0.005280, which was tested multiple times during the morning ET hours before failing to hold. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 09:00–10:00 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. The price then continued to trend lower, forming a descending channel with support zones visible at $0.005120 and $0.005035. A doji emerged near $0.005080 around 15:00 ET, suggesting short-term indecision but failing to reverse the downward trend.

MACD showed bearish divergence by the end of the session, with the histogram shrinking on lower prices. RSI dipped below 30 in the last three hours, indicating oversold conditions but lacking immediate bullish reversal signals. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed below the price, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands widened during the early hours of the session, highlighting the increased volatility, but later tightened, suggesting a consolidation period ahead.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent $0.0053 high to $0.005014 low identified critical areas around $0.005166 (38.2%) and $0.005096 (61.8%). The price tested both levels, with $0.005096 acting as a temporary floor before breaking down. Volume analysis showed that the highest notional turnover occurred during the 02:00–03:00 ET period, with strong bearish conviction. However, volume during the last four hours of the session was significantly lower, signaling a potential exhaustion of the downtrend or a buildup for a reversal.

Over the next 24 hours, a short-term rebound toward $0.005090–$0.005110 could occur if buyers step in at the recent lows. However, a break below $0.005014 may indicate a deeper correction into the $0.004950–$0.004980 range. Investors should monitor the 61.8% Fib level at $0.005096 for a potential reversal signal, along with a re-test of the 20-period moving average as a key near-term support.

A potential backtest hypothesis involves using a Fibonacci retracement strategy in conjunction with the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. The hypothesis would look to enter long positions when price bounces off the 61.8% retracement level and crosses above the 20-period MA, with a stop-loss placed just below the 78.6% level or a recent swing low. Conversely, short entries would be triggered when the price breaks below the 38.2% retracement level and falls below the 20-period MA. The strategy would aim to capture short-term trends within a larger bearish context and would be tested using a fixed time horizon of 4 hours per trade.