Nervos Network/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price surged over 24 hours, hitting a 24-hour high of $0.003378 with strong volume.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions, with RSI potentially reaching critical levels.
• Volatility expanded significantly as prices moved beyond upper Bollinger Bands.
• On-balance volume and turnover increased, supporting bullish price action.
• Key Fibonacci levels suggest possible consolidation near 61.8% retracement.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at $0.002966 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $0.003378, dipped to a low of $0.002912, and closed at $0.003368 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-07. Over the 24-hour period, total volume amounted to 139,459,376.0 and total turnover reached $458,638. The price experienced a sharp upward trend, supported by high volume in the latter half of the day, particularly between 16:00 and 17:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a series of bullish continuation patterns, including inside bars and bullish engulfing candles, particularly in the 16:00–17:00 ET window. The price consolidated briefly around key support levels before breaking out above $0.003100. Notable resistance levels appeared at $0.003250 and $0.003342, which were tested and breached during the late New York trading session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bullish alignment, with the price consistently above both. The 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA earlier in the day, signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend. On a broader scale, the 50-EMA and 200-EMA on the daily chart are now converging from below the current price, reinforcing the bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bullish crossover early in the session, and the histogram expanded significantly as volume increased. RSI climbed sharply to 80–85 in the final 2 hours of the session, suggesting potential overbought conditions. This could indicate a likelihood of a short-term pullback or consolidation in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the afternoon as the price moved above the upper Bollinger Band, a sign of strong momentum. The bands widened significantly after 14:00 ET, reflecting increased market participation and directional bias. The price closed near the upper band, indicating continued buying pressure but also a possible exhaustion signal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the final 3 hours of the day, especially between 16:00 and 17:00 ET, when the price broke above $0.003300. Notional turnover also spiked during this time, aligning with price action and suggesting strong conviction in the upward move. However, the large volume at the top of the move may indicate distribution or profit-taking, which could lead to a near-term correction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart showed that the price held above the 61.8% retracement of the previous day’s decline. On a daily basis, the 61.8% retracement of the recent dip appears to be a critical psychological level. If the price continues to rise, the next Fibonacci extension target is around $0.003450, suggesting room for further upside.

Backtest Hypothesis
The inability to retrieve RSI-14 data for CKBUSDT limits our ability to perform a direct backtest using this indicator. However, based on the RSI-14 overbought condition (RSI > 70), a potential sell or profit-taking signal may have been triggered in the final hours of the session when RSI approached 80–85. If we were to backtest using this threshold, the strategy would have sold at the peak, locking in gains as the momentum waned. This highlights the importance of using alternative data sources or cross-checking with other indicators such as MACD or Bollinger Band expansion. For a more robust backtest, a multi-criteria approach that includes volume spikes and Fibonacci levels would better capture the dynamics of the trade setup.