Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) Market Overview: Volatility and Key Support Levels

• Price declined sharply from $0.004066 to $0.003156 before stabilizing near $0.00328.
• Volatility spiked mid-day as price broke below key support levels.
• RSI approached oversold territory during the selloff but failed to show strong reversal signs.
• Volume surged during the drop, confirming bearish momentum.

The Nervos Network/Tether pair (CKBUSDT) opened at $0.004031 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.003287 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. Price reached a high of $0.004066 and a low of $0.003156 during the 24-hour window, with total volume of 732,661,898.0 and total turnover estimated in the hundreds of thousands of USD. The session was marked by a sharp decline and a subsequent partial rebound.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish continuation pattern after a large engulfing candle confirmed a breakdown. A critical support level emerged at $0.00326, where price found a floor, and a resistance at $0.00335 may become a key retest zone. A doji near the low of the session at $0.003156 suggested possible short-term hesitation in the bearish move, though it did not confirm a reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, reflecting the bearish bias. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) also indicated a longer-term downtrend, suggesting that the pair may remain under pressure unless price closes above $0.00335 for a sustained period.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover with a negative histogram, reinforcing the momentum shift lower. RSI bottomed near 30, signaling an oversold condition, but failed to produce a rebound above the 40 level, which remains a key trigger for further buying. If RSI can push above 50, it may indicate a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the lower band for much of the session, with a temporary contraction in the band width observed during the selloff, followed by a volatility expansion. The move into the lower band suggests a continuation of the bearish bias unless there is a breakout above the upper band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown, peaking near 36 million at 19:15 ET, confirming the bearish move. However, turnover during the rebound was relatively muted, suggesting limited conviction in the buying side. A divergence between price and volume during the rebound could indicate a potential false recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the high of $0.004066 and the low of $0.003156 highlighted key areas of 38.2% at $0.00368 and 61.8% at $0.00345. Price found support near the 50% retracement level at $0.00360 before falling further. The 61.8% level now acts as a psychological barrier.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price breaks below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and RSI drops below 40, with a stop above the 50-period moving average. The target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the recent high. This strategy aims to capitalize on short-term bearish momentum confirmed by both trend and momentum indicators.

Looking ahead, CKBUSDT may face renewed bearish pressure if key support levels hold and RSI remains below 50. Investors should watch for a potential bounce above $0.00330–$0.00335 as a signal for a short-covering phase. However, the risk of a continuation of the current downtrend remains elevated.