Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-27

• Price declined from 0.003398 to 0.003325 amid high volatility and mixed momentum signals.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence, suggesting weakening bullish conviction.
• Volume surged during key declines, indicating increased selling pressure.
• Price tested critical support near 0.003361 and 0.00334, with mixed follow-through.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at 0.003386 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 0.003363 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.003398 and a low of 0.003281. Total volume reached 95,628,425.0 with a turnover of approximately USD 326,172. The pair experienced a sharp drop in the late hours of the previous day, followed by a moderate recovery in the early morning of 2025-10-27.

Over the 24-hour period, the price formed multiple bearish patterns, including a long lower wick and a series of spinning tops in the late hours of the session. These suggest indecision and a possible reversal in buying momentum. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at the session high of 0.003398, confirming a shift in sentiment. Key support levels at 0.003361 (psychological level) and 0.00334 (previous swing low) were tested with mixed follow-through.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly, indicating short-term downward pressure. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages remain above price, showing a longer-term bearish bias. Bollinger Bands widened during the sharp selloff, reflecting increased volatility. Price spent significant time in the lower half of the bands, suggesting oversold territory.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped below 30 during the selloff, reaching as low as 29.7, indicating oversold conditions. However, price failed to rebound meaningfully, suggesting weak conviction in the short-term bounce. MACD crossed below zero with bearish divergence, as price made lower highs but MACD failed to confirm. The Fibonacci retracement from the key high of 0.003398 to the low of 0.003325 showed the 61.8% level near 0.003351 as a potential target for a bounce. Price remains below both the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels, keeping the bearish bias intact.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy under consideration involves a short bias triggered on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close below the 20-period moving average. Stops are placed above the recent high, and targets are set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the next immediate support. Given today’s price action and confirmation of bearish momentum indicators, this strategy may perform well over the next 24–48 hours if the market continues to trend lower. A trailing stop or a partial exit at the 38.2% retracement could also improve risk-adjusted returns, especially in a volatile environment like CKBUSDT.