NEOUSDT Market Overview for 2025-11-03

• Price declined 10.3% in 24 hours, closing near intraday lows at 5.117
• Volatility surged with a 2.0% range (5.165–5.117) on heavy volume
• RSI hit oversold levels (<30), suggesting possible short-term bounce • Bollinger Bands widened as selling pressure drove price to the lower band • Fibonacci 61.8% support at ~5.106 may test bearish momentum

Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) opened at 5.146 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-02 and closed at 5.117 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. The 24-hour range was 5.165 (high) to 5.117 (low). Total volume was 725,348.76 units, and total turnover amounted to $3,730,406.28. Price action showed a bearish trend with strong downward momentum.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern displayed a prolonged bearish bias, with key support levels forming around 5.105–5.120 and resistance near 5.145–5.165. A significant bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 19:30–20:00 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji at 00:30 ET indicated indecision, but subsequent bearish momentum resumed. A potential 61.8% Fibonacci support at 5.106 may trigger further weakness if broken.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA20) crossed below the 50-period moving average (SMA50), signaling a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA (SMA50) is above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, but the recent breakdown suggests a potential bearish crossover could occur soon. The 15-minute MA crossover aligns with the intraday bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained negative for most of the period, with a bearish divergence as the histogram contracted after the early sell-off. RSI dipped below 30 by 04:00 ET, entering oversold territory and suggesting a potential short-term rebound. However, bearish momentum remained intact, with RSI failing to close above 40 for most of the session. A bullish reversal may require RSI to close above 50 for confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sell-off, with price testing the lower band around 03:00–05:00 ET. Volatility remained elevated, and the width of the bands indicated increased uncertainty in the market. Price found temporary support at the lower band, but failed to close above it, reinforcing the bearish setup. A retest of the lower band may confirm further weakness.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early sell-off (23:15–00:15 ET) and again in the early morning (03:00–05:00 ET), with turnover reaching $195,500 in the 23:15–23:30 ET period. The volume–price alignment was bearish, with declining prices and increasing volume. Notable divergence occurred between the final hours of the session, where volume dropped but price continued to fall, indicating potential exhaustion in the short term.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price found support at the 38.2% retracement level of the 19:30–20:45 ET move before failing to hold. The 61.8% retracement at ~5.106 became a key watchpoint. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent bullish move remains untested, but a break below 5.106 may signal further bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish bias and confirmed patterns such as the bearish engulfing and doji, a potential backtesting strategy could target entries on confirmed bearish signals with a sell rule after 5 trading days or at the first bearish confirmation. For instance, a long-term test could identify "Bullish" signals (like Bullish Engulfing) and evaluate their performance from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03. This would allow us to assess the viability of the pattern as a predictive signal in a broader context.

Price may test the 5.106 level in the next 24 hours, with a potential bounce if RSI closes above 40. A breakdown below this level could extend the decline. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains high and bearish momentum has not yet shown signs of reversal.