El Neógeno (NEOG) experimenta un aumento del 27.6% debido al buen resultado financiero y al mejoramiento de las expectativas de ganancias. ¿Es este el inicio de una tendencia alcista?

Summary
• Neogen’s shares surged 28.8% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $10.24
• Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.10 beat estimates by 50%, while revenue of $224.7M topped forecasts by 7.2%
• Full-year revenue guidance raised to $850M midpoint, exceeding Wall Street’s $830M

Neogen’s explosive rally on January 8, 2026, underscores a rare confluence of earnings outperformance and revised guidance. The stock’s 28.8% jump—its largest single-day move in over a year—reflects investor optimism about the company’s ability to navigate headwinds while expanding margins. With a 52-week low of $3.87 and a current price of $9.51, the stock remains 27% below its peak but has surged 36% year-to-date.

Earnings Beat and Guidance Hike Ignite Investor Optimism
Neogen’s 28.8% intraday surge was driven by a combination of Q4 results that far exceeded expectations and an aggressive upward revision of full-year guidance. The company reported adjusted EPS of $0.10, a 50% beat over the $0.07 consensus, and revenue of $224.7 million, a 7.2% beat. Despite a 2.8% year-on-year sales decline, the company’s adjusted EBITDA of $48.75 million (21.7% margin) outperformed estimates by 24.5%. Neogen raised its full-year revenue guidance to $850 million (midpoint) and adjusted EBITDA to $175 million, signaling confidence in its ability to offset tariffs and strategic divestitures.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on Neogen’s Volatility
• 200-day average: $5.91 (well below current price)
• RSI: 60.76 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 0.25 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $9.51 vs. upper band $7.55 (overbought)

Neogen’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend, with the 52-week high at $12.98 acting as a critical resistance. The stock’s 6.6% turnover rate and 28.8% intraday gain indicate strong near-term momentum. For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• NEOG20260417C10 (Call, $10 strike, April 17 expiration):
- IV: 59.34% (moderate)
- Leverage ratio: 9.47%
- Delta: 0.5073 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.00745 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1355 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: $406,897
- Payoff at 5% upside ($9.98): $0.98 per share. This call offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a continuation of the bullish trend.

• NEOG20260417C7.5 (Call, $7.5 strike, April 17 expiration):
- IV: 96.36% (high)
- Leverage ratio: 3.95%
- Delta: 0.7698 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.00908 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0636 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $565,274
- Payoff at 5% upside ($9.98): $2.48 per share. This contract’s high delta and turnover make it a strong play for aggressive bulls.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider NEOG20260417C7.5 into a break above $10.24, while conservative traders can target NEOG20260417C10 for a measured move toward $12.98.

Backtest Neogen Stock Performance
The backtest of NEOG's performance after a 29% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of -0.20% during the backtest period, the 3-Day win rate was 45.39%, the 10-Day win rate was 44.44%, and the 30-Day win rate was 45.15%. This indicates that NEOG had a higher probability of positive returns in the short term, but the overall return over the longer period was negative.

Neogen’s Rally: A High-Volatility Play with Clear Catalysts
Neogen’s 28.8% surge is a rare but justified reaction to a rare combination of earnings outperformance and guidance optimism. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest continued short-term momentum, with key resistance at $12.98 and support near $9.12. Investors should monitor the 52-week high and the company’s ability to sustain EBITDA growth. Meanwhile, Medtronic (MDT), the sector leader, rose 0.22%, indicating broader healthcare equipment sector stability. For now, NEOG20260417C7.5 offers the highest reward potential if the rally extends beyond $10.24.