Neo/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-11 12:00 ET)

• NEOUSDT fell 28.4% from $6.177 to $4.652, marking a sharp selloff.
• A bearish breakdown below key support at $5.207 confirmed selling pressure.
• Volatility spiked, with $2.3M notional turnover in the 15-minute $5.5–$4.3 range.
• RSI (14) hit 19 and MACD turned negative, signaling oversold but bearish momentum.
• Price found temporary support at $4.5 and appears to be forming a base ahead of $4.35.

Market Overview

Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) opened at $6.101 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and closed at $4.652 on 2025-10-11 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $6.196 and a low of $2.347. Total 24-hour volume was 14,357,700.29 with a notional turnover of approximately $68,552,235. The sharp, multi-hour decline began after a large bearish candle at $5.214–$3.331, which confirmed a breakdown in sentiment.

Price action revealed a strong bearish trend, with the 20 and 50-period EMA lines on the 15-minute chart well below the price, reinforcing downward momentum. The 50-period daily EMA at ~$5.30 did not offer meaningful resistance as the selloff continued. A significant volume spike occurred between $5.5 and $4.3, aligning with the most aggressive phase of the sell-off.

Bollinger Bands show a wide expansion during the sell-off phase, reflecting heightened volatility, particularly after the $5.207 breakdown. Price closed near the lower band during the $4.3–$4.6 range, indicating potential oversold conditions. RSI (14) hit 19, suggesting a possible short-term bounce, but the bearish crossover in the MACD histogram reinforced the probability of further downside.

Fibonacci levels show the price retraced 61.8% of the recent $6.177–$4.316 move at $5.207, a critical level that failed to hold. A 38.2% retracement near $4.85 may act as a near-term resistance.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume and turnover confirmed the bearish narrative, with the most aggressive selloff occurring between 19:30 and 22:00 ET. During this phase, a single 15-minute candle (2025-1010 213000) recorded $3.331 at $5.207 with 442,856.81 traded volume—more than double the average. A divergence between price and turnover occurred near the $4.5–$4.6 level, where turnover dropped despite continued price weakness, suggesting potential stabilization.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on identifying oversold RSI conditions (below 30) in conjunction with bearish divergences between price and volume. Based on the current RSI reading of 19 and the noted divergence in the $4.5–$4.6 range, a potential long entry could be considered near $4.45 with a stop-loss below $4.3 and a target near $4.70. This strategy would aim to capitalize on a short-term bounce off oversold levels while avoiding long-term bearish exposure.