Nebius vs. Super Micro Computer: Which AI Stock Offers the Better Long-Term Value and Growth Potential?

The global AI infrastructure market is undergoing a seismic shift, with companies like Nebius Group (NBIS) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) vying for dominance. Both firms are positioned to benefit from the surge in demand for AI-driven computing, but their divergent business models, financial trajectories, and valuation multiples suggest starkly different investment risks and rewards. This analysis evaluates which stock offers superior long-term value and growth potential by comparing their strategies, revenue growth, EBITDA trends, and valuation metrics.

Business Models: Specialization vs. Flexibility

Nebius Group has carved out a niche as a purpose-built AI infrastructure provider, offering a full-stack solution that integrates hardware, platform, and applications tailored for AI workloads. Its Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) and Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) model generates revenue by leasing GPU compute capacity and managed AI tools, enabling startups and enterprises to deploy large-scale AI models efficiently according to analysis. In contrast, Super Micro Computer operates as a traditional server and hardware manufacturer, supplying customizable physical infrastructure to data centers and cloud providers based on data. While Supermicro's approach emphasizes flexibility across diverse workloads, Nebius's vertical integration allows it to optimize for AI-specific bottlenecks, such as energy efficiency and high-density compute as research shows.

Nebius's strategic partnership with Microsoft-a multi-billion-dollar agreement to expand its AI cloud infrastructure-underscores its ambition to scale rapidly according to company announcements. Supermicro, meanwhile, has secured high-profile collaborations, including a $20 billion partnership with Saudi Arabian data center firm DataVolt and a contract with Digi Power X to supply servers for modular AI campuses as reported. While both companies are expanding their AI footprints, Nebius's focus on end-to-end AI-native solutions may give it an edge in a market increasingly dominated by specialized infrastructure.

Nebius has demonstrated extraordinary revenue growth, with last twelve months (LTM) revenue reaching $536 million as of November 2025-a 493% increase from prior periods according to financial data. Its Q2 2025 revenue of $105.1 million reflects a 625% year-on-year surge, and the company has raised its annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) guidance to $900 million–$1.1 billion for 2025 as announced. This trajectory suggests Nebius is capitalizing on the AI boom, albeit at the cost of profitability.

Supermicro's revenue growth, while robust, appears more measured. Its 2025 annual EBITDA of $1.322 billion represents a 5.58% increase from 2024 and a 57.25% jump from 2023 according to financial reports. However, its trailing twelve months (TTM) EBITDA as of September 2025 was $1.006 billion, a 36.87% decline year-on-year as reported. This volatility highlights the challenges of scaling in a hardware-centric model, where demand can fluctuate with broader economic cycles.

Nebius's financials reveal a company prioritizing growth over profitability. Its EBITDA has remained negative for three consecutive years: -$298 million in 2023, -$363 million in 2024, and -$89.5 million in LTM 2025 according to financial data. Despite a 493% revenue surge, the company's net income turned negative in 2024 ($-641 million) and remained in the red in 2025 ($-218 million for nine months ending September 2025) as disclosed. This pattern indicates heavy reinvestment in infrastructure and R&D, supported by capital markets according to analysis.

Supermicro, by contrast, has maintained positive EBITDA, albeit with recent declines. Its 2025 EBITDA of $1.322 billion reflects strong operational leverage, but the TTM EBITDA drop to $1.006 billion signals potential headwinds in sustaining margins according to financial reports. Its net income for 2023 was $241 million, a 57% decline from 2022, while 2024 saw a reversal to a $641 million loss as reported. This volatility underscores the risks of relying on hardware sales in a market where pricing pressures and supply chain disruptions can erode margins.

Valuation Multiples: Speculative Hype vs. Traditional Metrics

Nebius's valuation metrics are among the most extreme in the sector. As of December 2025, its enterprise value-to-revenue (EV/Revenue) multiple stood at 186.0x, while its EV/EBITDA multiple was -61.7x according to valuation data. These figures reflect high investor expectations for future growth but also highlight the company's reliance on capital markets to fund operations as analyzed. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has swung wildly, from 29.14 in December 2023 to -426.05 in December 2025, illustrating the risks of investing in a company with inconsistent earnings.

Supermicro's valuation appears more grounded in traditional metrics. Its EV/EBITDA ratio fluctuated from 17.6x in 2023 to 21.5x in 2025, before settling at 16.84 in late 2025 according to financial analysis. A P/E ratio of 56.70 in September 2025 suggests investors are paying a premium for its earnings growth, but the metric remains within historical ranges for tech hardware firms. While less speculative than Nebius, Supermicro's valuation still reflects optimism about its role in the AI infrastructure boom.

Strategic Partnerships and Scalability

Nebius's partnership with Microsoft is a critical differentiator. The agreement provides access to capital and infrastructure to scale its data centers, leveraging Microsoft's global reach to accelerate growth according to company announcements. Supermicro's partnerships, such as its collaboration with DataVolt and Digi Power X, focus on expanding manufacturing capacity and securing long-term contracts as reported. However, Nebius's full-stack control over its AI infrastructure enables faster innovation cycles, while Supermicro's hardware-centric model may struggle to match the agility of integrated cloud-native solutions as research shows.

Conclusion: Balancing Growth and Risk

Nebius Group and Super Micro Computer represent two distinct approaches to the AI infrastructure market. Nebius's explosive revenue growth and purpose-built AI platform position it as a high-risk, high-reward play, ideal for investors willing to tolerate significant losses in pursuit of market leadership. Its valuation multiples and reliance on capital markets, however, expose it to volatility if growth slows or funding dries up.

Supermicro, with its established hardware business and more stable EBITDA, offers a safer bet for investors prioritizing operational resilience. While its scalability in AI-specific infrastructure lags behind Nebius, its diversified partnerships and manufacturing expansion provide a buffer against sector-specific downturns.

For long-term value, Nebius's potential to dominate the AI cloud infrastructure market is compelling, but its financial risks are substantial. Supermicro, meanwhile, offers a more balanced profile, combining growth with relative profitability. Investors must weigh their appetite for speculative bets against the need for financial stability when choosing between these two AI stocks.