Can Nebius Stock Double in 2026 Amid AI Infrastructure Boom?

The AI infrastructure sector has emerged as one of the most dynamic and contentious corners of the technology market in 2025, with Nebius Group (NBIS) standing at the forefront of this transformation. As global demand for AI computing power surges, investors are scrutinizing whether Nebius's stock-currently trading at a valuation over 60 times sales-can double in 2026. This analysis evaluates the company's growth potential, valuation risks, and shifting market sentiment to determine if the stock is poised for a breakout or a correction.

Growth Drivers: A Strategic Position in the AI Infrastructure Gold Rush

Nebius Group has capitalized on the explosive demand for AI computing resources, with its market capitalization surging by 122.72% in one year to reach $22.06 billion as of late December 2025. This growth is underpinned by the company's role as a provider of full-stack AI infrastructure, including GPU clusters and cloud services, catering to enterprises and developers. Management has projected annual recurring revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026, driven by multi-year contracts with tech giants like Microsoft and Meta.

A critical catalyst for Nebius's expansion is its capacity to meet the insatiable demand for AI computing power. In Q3 2025, the company sold out of available capacity, prompting it to raise its 2026 computing power guidance to over 2.5 gigawatts-triple its initial target. This demand is further amplified by the $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion agreement with Microsoft, which underscores the strategic value of Nebius's infrastructure in supporting large-scale AI initiatives.

Valuation Risks: A High-Multiple Play on Uncertain Profitability

Despite its rapid revenue growth, Nebius remains unprofitable, reporting a GAAP net loss of $119.6 million in Q3 2025. Its valuation, currently over 60 times sales, is among the highest in the sector, raising concerns about sustainability. Analysts have highlighted the company's heavy reliance on debt and equity financing to fund expansion, which could expose it to volatility if AI demand slows.

The AI infrastructure market is also polarizing. As noted by Fidelity, investors are beginning to differentiate between companies generating revenue from AI and those investing in infrastructure without clear monetization paths. While firms like NVIDIA and Taiwan Semiconductor are seen as foundational beneficiaries of the AI boom, companies like Nebius face heightened scrutiny due to their lack of profitability as highlighted by Fidelity. This dynamic suggests that Nebius's valuation may remain speculative unless it demonstrates a path to profitability.

Market Sentiment: Bullish Potential vs. Bearish Caution

Market sentiment for AI infrastructure stocks in 2026 is split. On the bullish side, BlackRock notes that AI-related capital expenditures are projected to grow from $314 billion at the start of 2025 to $519 billion by year-end 2026, with infrastructure providers like Nebius benefiting from this surge. J.P. Morgan analysts also emphasize that AI-driven growth is reshaping equity markets, with AI-focused companies outperforming non-AI sectors.

However, bearish voices caution against overvaluation. The Fool highlights that the current market is skeptical of AI stocks, demanding tangible returns before committing capital. This skepticism is compounded by broader concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven growth, particularly as energy demands for data centers outpace supply in the U.S. and geopolitical tensions with China-its lead in renewable technologies-intensify as reported by Credaily.

The Path to Doubling: A High-Stakes Bet

For Nebius stock to double in 2026, the company must navigate several challenges. First, it needs to maintain its capacity expansion momentum while securing long-term contracts that justify its high valuation. Second, it must demonstrate progress toward profitability, as analysts warn that a lack of earnings could trigger a sell-off if AI demand plateaus. Finally, the stock's performance will hinge on a broader return of bullish sentiment in the AI sector, which remains uncertain given current market polarization as noted by J.P. Morgan.

While the potential for doubling exists-driven by the AI infrastructure boom and strategic client relationships-the risks are equally pronounced. Investors must weigh Nebius's high-growth narrative against its unprofitable status and the sector's inherent volatility.

Conclusion

Nebius Group's trajectory in 2026 will likely mirror the broader AI infrastructure market's evolution. If the company can sustain its revenue growth, expand capacity profitably, and align with the sector's long-term demand, its stock could indeed double. However, the high valuation and reliance on speculative growth metrics mean that any misstep-whether in execution or market sentiment-could lead to significant downside. For now, Nebius remains a high-risk, high-reward play in the AI revolution.