Nebius Group Surges 17% — Is This the AI Infrastructure Breakout Wall Street Has Been Waiting For?

• Nebius Group (NBIS) rockets 17.29% to $51.96, within striking distance of its 52-week high of $55.75.
• Goldman Sachs initiates coverage with a 'Buy' rating, forecasting a potential $68 price target (+34% upside).
• Sector peer CoreWeave (CRWV) climbs 5.79%, while Meta’s $14.3B AI infrastructure investment signals sector tailwinds.

Nebius’ explosive move mirrors broader enthusiasm for AI compute infrastructure, fueled by Goldman’s bullish thesis and Meta’s data center expansion. The stock’s 17% surge today spans a $48.80–$52.18 range, with technicals hinting at a pivotal breakout moment.

Goldman Sachs’ Buy Call and AI Compute Momentum Drive the Surge
The catalyst is clear: Goldman Sachs’ initiation of coverage at 'Buy' with a $68 price target provided a powerful narrative for institutional buying. Analyst Alex Duval highlighted Nebius’ full-stack AI infrastructure, cost efficiencies, and its role as a pure-play AI compute provider trading at a 3x EV/Sales discount to CoreWeave (CRWV). This valuation gap, coupled with Nebius’ 385% Q1 revenue surge, convinced traders to bid shares higher. The report’s emphasis on Nebius’ scalability and enterprise demand for GPU-as-a-service cloud solutions added credibility to the rally.

Data Center Sector Grows as Meta and CoreWeave Lead Expansion
While Nebius’ move is sector-agnostic, broader data center trends support the momentum. Meta’s announcement of a 5-gigawatt Louisiana data center and CoreWeave’s 5x valuation multiple underscore investor optimism in AI infrastructure. However, Nebius’ rise is more tied to its unique AI focus than sector-wide tailwinds. Notably, sector peer CRWV’s 5.79% gain today mirrors institutional rotation into AI compute plays, but Nebius’ Goldman-fueled narrative gives it a distinct catalyst.

Bullish Technicals and High-Leverage Call Options Set the Stage
RSSI technicals:
• Bollinger Bands (Upper: $54.17, Middle: $49.08, Lower: $43.98) — current price sits above the middle band, signaling momentum.
• MACD (1.18 vs. Signal Line 2.48) — negative divergence hints at short-term pullback risk.
• RSI (43.26) — neutral territory, no overbought/oversold extremes.

Bulls should target the $54.17 upper Bollinger Band for confirmation of a breakout. Below $48.38 (30-day resistance), the rally could falter. For traders:

Top Option Picks:
1. NBIS20250718C50 (Call, Strike $50, Exp 2025-07-18)
- Leverage Ratio: 18.13%, Delta: 0.659, Theta: -0.452, Gamma: 0.077, Turnover: $2.5M
- Rationale: High liquidity and a strike near current price provide optimal leverage. With a 5% upside to $54.61, payoff would hit $4.61 (max gain), while gamma sensitivity amplifies gains in volatility.

2. NBIS20250718C52.5 (Call, Strike $52.5, Exp 2025-07-18)
- Leverage Ratio: 30.58%, Delta: 0.459, Theta: -0.399, Gamma: 0.077, Turnover: $920K
- Rationale: Offers higher leverage for aggressive bulls betting on a sustained breakout. At $54.61, payoff reaches $2.11. The lower delta reduces immediate volatility risk while maintaining upside potential.

Action Hook: Aggressive buyers may layer NBIS20250718C52.5 into a close above $53.00, targeting $55.00 resistance.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NBIS's performance after an intraday surge of 17% shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate and maximum return indicate some positive short-term movement, the overall trend suggests that holding NBIS after such a surge may not lead to significant long-term gains.

Hold the $48.38 Line or Risk a Momentum Rollback
Nebius’ 17% surge faces a critical test at $48.38 (30-day resistance-turned-support). A breach below this level could unwind the rally, but Goldman’s $68 target and Meta’s AI build-out suggest resilience. Investors should monitor CoreWeave’s (CRWV +5.79%) valuation premium as a benchmark. For now, the bullish narrative holds — but watch for a pullback to $49.00 before chasing further gains. Action: Buy the dip to $49.00; above $54.17, the $60s loom large.