El Grupo Nebius aumentó en un 5.46% durante la sesión de cotización, en medio de las turbulencias del sector.

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) trades at $101.75, up 4.57% intraday with a range of $97.10–$104.97
• $17.4B Microsoft contract and $3B Meta deal drive long-term growth optimism
• Oracle’s Q4 earnings triggered sector-wide neocloud selloff in December
• RSI at 71.35 signals overbought conditions, MACD (0.025) confirms bullish momentum

Nebius Group’s 4.57% intraday surge reflects renewed confidence in its AI data center expansion and sector-wide recovery after Oracle’s earnings-driven selloff. With a $25B market cap and $20B+ contract backlog, the stock’s volatility underscores its position at the forefront of the AI infrastructure boom. Technical indicators and options activity suggest aggressive positioning for near-term upside.

Oracle Earnings Spur Sector Rebound, Micron Strength Bolsters AI Optimism
Nebius Group’s 4.57% rally follows a sector-wide rebound triggered by Oracle’s Q4 earnings report, which initially spooked neocloud investors in December. While Oracle’s $12B capital expenditure miss and revenue shortfall initially dragged down AI infrastructure stocks, the sector rebounded as Micron’s strong Q4 results reaffirmed demand for AI chips. Nebius itself benefited from a bullish analyst upgrade and renewed investor appetite for AI cloud providers. The stock’s intraday high of $104.97 reflects optimism around its $17.4B Microsoft contract and $3B Meta deal, which secure long-term revenue streams as it scales to 800–1,000MW of data center capacity in 2026.

Data Processing & Outsourced Services Sector Mixed as Amazon Drives Caution
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector remains fragmented, with Amazon (AMZN) down 0.11% despite Nebius’s rally. While Nebius’s AI infrastructure model focuses on GPU-driven cloud services, Amazon’s broader e-commerce and cloud operations face margin pressures. The sector’s lack of alignment with Nebius’s AI-specific growth trajectory highlights its unique positioning. However, Amazon’s slight decline underscores broader market caution, contrasting with Nebius’s aggressive expansion and contract backlog.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Puts for Downside Protection Amid AI Sector Volatility
• 200-day MA: $69.04 (far below) | RSI: 71.35 (overbought) | MACD: 0.025 (bullish) | Bollinger Upper: $101.83 (near current price)
• Key support/resistance: 30D support at $100.07, 200D support at $50.06

Nebius’s overbought RSI and bullish MACD suggest short-term continuation of its rally, but the stock’s 143.93% leverage ratio in its put options indicates aggressive hedging. Two top options for positioning:

• NBIS20260116P94 (Put, $94 strike, Jan 16 expiry):
- IV: 84.88% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 45.80% (high)
- Delta: -0.267 (moderate downside sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.108 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.026 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 286,512 (liquid)
- Why: Balances high leverage with moderate delta for downside protection if the AI sector faces profit-taking.

• NBIS20260116P95 (Put, $95 strike, Jan 16 expiry):
- IV: 86.35% (high)
- Leverage: 38.75% (high)
- Delta: -0.298 (moderate downside sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.108 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.027 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 160,093 (liquid)
- Why: Slightly higher strike price offers tighter stop-loss potential while maintaining liquidity and leverage for a 5% upside scenario (projected price: $106.84).

Payoff Estimation: For a 5% upside to $106.84, NBIS20260116P94 would expire worthless, but its high gamma and leverage make it ideal for short-term volatility. Aggressive bulls may consider NBIS20260116C95 (Call, $95 strike) if the stock breaks above $104.97.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NBIS's performance after a 5% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 53.21%, the 10-Day win rate is 56.41%, and the 30-Day win rate is 61.54%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 35.62% over 30 days, suggesting that NBIS can deliver significant gains even after the initial 5% surge.

AI Infrastructure Momentum Unlikely to Subside—Position for Volatility
Nebius Group’s 4.57% surge reflects its pivotal role in the AI data center boom, with $20B+ in long-term contracts and a 2.5GW expansion target. While overbought RSI and high IV suggest near-term volatility, the stock’s fundamentals—driven by Microsoft and Meta’s demand—remain robust. Investors should monitor the $104.97 intraday high for continuation signals and consider high-leverage puts like NBIS20260116P94 for downside protection. With Amazon (AMZN) down 0.11%, broader market caution persists, but Nebius’s AI-specific growth trajectory positions it to outperform sector peers. Watch for a break above $104.97 or a pullback to $97.10 for entry opportunities.