Nebius Group Plummets 4.66%: Earnings Shock and AI Sector Jitters Ignite Volatility

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) trades at $68.68, down 4.66% from its previous close of $72.04
• Intraday range spans $67.60–$71.69, reflecting sharp post-open selloff
• Turnover surges to 6.58 million shares, 3.48% of its float

Nebius Group’s dramatic intraday decline has sent shockwaves through the AI infrastructure sector. The stock’s sharp selloff follows a Q2 earnings report that missed estimates by $0.03 and revenue that fell $48 million short of expectations. With the Communication Services sector under pressure and peers like CoreWeave (CRWV) also underperforming, investors are recalibrating risk exposure as NBIS tests critical support levels.

Earnings Shock and Revenue Collapse Fuel Sell-Off
Nebius Group’s 4.66% intraday drop stems from a Q2 earnings report that missed estimates by $0.03 and revenue that fell $48 million short of expectations. The company reported a $0.44 loss per share, exacerbating concerns about its AI infrastructure scalability. Institutional selling intensified after Tekne Capital Management’s $7.9 million stake acquisition failed to offset broader market skepticism. The move aligns with sector-wide jitters as AI hype cools, with peers like CoreWeave (CRWV) also underperforming.

Communication Services Sector Mixed as Alphabet Gains Ground
The Communication Services sector, led by Alphabet (GOOGL) with a 0.76% intraday gain, is under pressure as AI infrastructure stocks face profit-taking. Nebius Group’s 4.66% decline contrasts with the sector’s 0.67% daily return, highlighting divergent investor sentiment. While Alphabet’s modest gains reflect macroeconomic resilience, Nebius’s selloff underscores sector-specific risks tied to earnings execution and valuation compression.

Capitalizing on Volatility: Options and ETF Plays for the NBIS Selloff
• 200-day MA: $37.45 (well below current price)
• RSI: 55.25 (neutral zone)
• Bollinger Bands: $52.96 (lower) to $80.22 (upper)
• MACD: 4.35 (bullish divergence with signal line at 4.61)

Key levels to monitor include the 30D support at $50.90 and 200D support at $21.06. The stock’s short-term bullish Kline pattern clashes with its 52W low of $14.09, creating a high-risk, high-reward setup. Aggressive traders may consider the NBIS20250905P65 put option (strike $65, 57.16% IV, 5.50% gamma) for a 94.55% price change potential if NBIS breaks below $65. For directional bets, the NBIS20250905C71 call (strike $71, 55.14% IV, 6.61% gamma) offers 60.96% upside if the stock rebounds above its 30D MA. Both contracts exhibit high liquidity (turnover $44,478 and $2.93M respectively) and moderate delta exposure (–0.2516 and +0.3481), balancing risk and reward. A 5% downside scenario (to $65.20) would yield $0.49 profit on the put, while the call would expire worthless, highlighting the asymmetry in bearish positioning.

NBIS20250905P65 (Put):
• Code: NBIS20250905P65
• Strike: $65
• Expiration: 2025-09-05
• IV: 57.16% (high implied volatility)
• LVR: 75.25% (high leverage)
• Delta: –0.2516 (moderate bearish exposure)
• Theta: –0.0198 (slow time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0550 (high sensitivity to price movement)
• Turnover: $44,478 (high liquidity)
• Payoff: $0.49 profit at 5% downside
• Rationale: High IV and gamma make this put ideal for capitalizing on a breakdown below $65.

NBIS20250905C71 (Call):
• Code: NBIS20250905C71
• Strike: $71
• Expiration: 2025-09-05
• IV: 55.14% (moderate implied volatility)
• LVR: 54.78% (high leverage)
• Delta: +0.3481 (moderate bullish exposure)
• Theta: –0.2483 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0661 (high sensitivity to price movement)
• Turnover: $2.93M (high liquidity)
• Payoff: $0.00 at 5% downside
• Rationale: High gamma and leverage make this call suitable for a rebound above $71, though theta decay is aggressive.

If $65 breaks, NBIS20250905P65 offers short-side potential. Aggressive bulls may consider NBIS20250905C71 into a bounce above $71.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance

Act Now: Position for Breakout or Breakdown in NBIS
The selloff has created a critical inflection point for NBIS, with its 52W low ($14.09) and 30D support ($50.90) forming a volatile battleground. While the stock’s long-term bullish Kline pattern suggests resilience, immediate risks include a breakdown below $65, which could trigger a liquidity cascade. Investors should prioritize the NBIS20250905P65 put for downside protection and monitor the NBIS20250905C71 call for a potential rebound. Meanwhile, the Communication Services sector leader Alphabet (GOOGL), up 0.76%, offers a macro hedge. Watch for a $65 support test or a sector-wide AI infrastructure rally to dictate next steps.