Nebius Group: La nube de inteligencia artificial, pasada por alto hasta ahora, se prepara para superar a CoreWeave en 2026.

The AI cloud infrastructure sector is entering a pivotal phase in 2026, with two dominant players-CoreWeave and Nebius Group-competing to define the next era of computational power. While CoreWeave has long been the market leader, recent developments suggest that Nebius Group, often overshadowed by its rival, is emerging as a formidable contender. For investors prioritizing growth-at-all-costs strategies in the AI era, Nebius's aggressive expansion, strategic contract wins, and innovative product launches position it to outperform CoreWeave in the coming year.

The AI Cloud Infrastructure Landscape: A Tale of Two Giants

The global demand for AI-driven compute power has surged, with hyperscalers like Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI locking in long-term partnerships with infrastructure providers. CoreWeave, with its $55.6 billion backlog as of September 2025, remains a dominant force, anchored by multi-year contracts with Meta ($14.2 billion) and OpenAI ($22.4 billion). However, its 2025 revenue guidance was revised downward to $5.05–$5.15 billion due to delays in third-party data-center capacity delivery, despite a strong Q3 performance of $1.36 billion in revenue and $838 million in adjusted EBITDA according to earnings reports.

Nebius Group, meanwhile, is leveraging its agility and strategic focus on AI-specific infrastructure to close the gap. The company has secured a $3 billion, five-year contract with Meta and a $17.4–$19.4 billion agreement with Microsoft, while also launching the Aether 3.0 cloud platform and Nebius Token Factory to streamline AI model training and deployment. These moves are fueling expectations of $7–$9 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) for 2026, a figure that dwarfs CoreWeave's 2025 projections.

Strategic Expansion: Power, Partnerships, and Profitability

CoreWeave's infrastructure expansion has been impressive, with 2.9 gigawatts (GW) of contracted power by late 2025 and plans to scale further in 2026. However, its reliance on third-party developers has exposed execution risks, as evidenced by the 2025 capacity delays. Nebius, by contrast, is accelerating its power procurement independently, targeting 2.5 GW of contracted capacity by 2026-up from 1 GW in 2025. This self-sufficiency reduces dependency on external bottlenecks and aligns with the urgent demand for AI compute.

Geographically, Nebius is also outpacing CoreWeave. While CoreWeave focuses on North America, Nebius is expanding into the U.K., Israel, and New Jersey, creating a more diversified footprint that appeals to global hyperscalers seeking redundancy and latency optimization. This strategic diversification not only mitigates regional risks but also positions Nebius to capture market share in Europe, where AI adoption is accelerating.

The Growth-at-All-Costs Edge

For investors prioritizing growth over short-term profitability, Nebius's trajectory is compelling. Its ARR projections for 2026 ($7–$9 billion) represent a 70–100% increase from CoreWeave's 2025 revenue range ($5.05–$5.15 billion). This growth is underpinned by high-margin, multi-year contracts with industry leaders, which provide visibility and stability. CoreWeave, despite its strong backlog, faces margin pressures from its revised 2025 guidance and ongoing capital expenditures to resolve capacity bottlenecks.

Nebius's product innovation further amplifies its growth potential. The Aether 3.0 platform, designed for AI model training, and the Nebius Token Factory, which optimizes token generation for large language models, address specific pain points in the AI workflow. These tools differentiate Nebius from competitors and create a sticky ecosystem for clients like Microsoft and Meta, which are increasingly prioritizing infrastructure providers that offer end-to-end AI solutions.

Risks and Realities

Neither company is immune to challenges. Both face capital-intensive expansion, supply chain constraints, and the inherent risks of scaling at breakneck speed. CoreWeave's execution issues in 2025 highlight the fragility of relying on third-party infrastructure, while Nebius's rapid growth could strain its operational capacity if not managed carefully. However, Nebius's proactive approach to power procurement and product development gives it a structural advantage in navigating these risks.

Conclusion: Why Nebius is the Better Bet for 2026

While CoreWeave remains a formidable player, its recent execution hurdles and slower growth trajectory make it a less compelling choice for investors seeking high-conviction growth bets. Nebius Group, with its aggressive expansion, strategic contract wins, and innovative product suite, is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom. As the sector evolves, Nebius's focus on growth-at-all-costs-backed by a $30+ billion contract pipeline and a diversified global footprint-suggests it will not only keep pace with CoreWeave but potentially surpass it in 2026.