Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 9.9% on AI Partnership Hype: Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) surges 9.93% intraday to $107.66, hitting a 52-week high of $107.99
• Microsoft AI infrastructure deal and NVIDIA Rubin platform integration drive momentum
• Options chain shows 132.91% implied volatility on put options, 151.47% leverage ratio on call contracts
• Turnover spikes to 12.9M shares, 6.3% of float traded in 2026-01-12 session

Nebius Group's stock is experiencing a historic intraday rally driven by a $17.4B Microsoft AI infrastructure deal and NVIDIA Rubin platform integration. The stock has surged 9.93% to $107.66, trading above its 200-day moving average of $69.39 and 50-day SMA of $88.92. With 12.9M shares traded, the move reflects growing institutional confidence in AI infrastructure as Microsoft and NVIDIA partnerships validate Nebius' full-stack AI platform.

Microsoft AI Pact and NVIDIA Rubin Integration Ignite Investor Appetite
Nebius Group's 9.93% intraday surge stems from two key catalysts: a $17.4B multi-year AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft and early access to NVIDIA's Rubin platform. The Microsoft agreement provides stable revenue through 2031 while the NVIDIA partnership positions Nebius to deploy next-gen NVL72 systems in U.S. and European data centers. These strategic wins validate Nebius' full-stack AI infrastructure model, with analysts noting the company's 625% YoY Q2 sales growth and 393% annual stock rally as evidence of its market leadership in AI cloud services.

IT Services Sector Rally Led by Microsoft's 0.055% Gains
The IT Services sector is showing mixed momentum with Microsoft (MSFT) up 0.055% as the sector leader. Nebius' 9.93% rally far outpaces Microsoft's modest gains, reflecting its pure-play AI infrastructure positioning. While Microsoft's Azure division competes in the same space, Nebius' full-stack model with NVIDIA integration creates a unique value proposition. The sector's average P/E of 57.85x aligns with Nebius' 57.85x multiple, suggesting the market views its AI specialization as a premium offering.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Volatility-Protected Puts
• 200-day average: $69.39 (well above) • RSI: 70.18 (overbought) • MACD: 0.487 (bullish) • Bollinger Bands: $75.32-$102.52 (trading at upper band)
The technical setup suggests continued bullish momentum with key support at $96.55 (intraday low) and resistance at $107.99 (52-week high). With RSI in overbought territory and MACD above signal line, the stock shows strong short-term momentum. The $100 strike call options (NBIS20260116C100) offer 151.47% leverage with 84.54% implied volatility, ideal for aggressive bulls. For volatility protection, the $95 put (NBIS20260116P95) provides 117.07% leverage with 116.76% IV.
• NBIS20260116C95: Call option, strike $95, exp 2026-01-16, IV 74.85%, leverage 8.15%, delta 0.9309, theta -0.8545, gamma 0.0141, turnover 802,855
• NBIS20260116C96: Call option, strike $96, exp 2026-01-16, IV 76.79%, leverage 8.69%, delta 0.9084, theta -0.8753, gamma 0.0170, turnover 259,744

The C95 contract offers maximum leverage with 8.15x exposure and 74.85% IV, ideal for a 5% upside scenario where payoff would be $12.10 per contract. The C96 option provides slightly lower leverage but higher liquidity (259k turnover) with 8.69x exposure. Both options benefit from high gamma (0.0141-0.0170) and theta decay (-0.85-0.88) that favor short-term holding periods. Aggressive bulls should consider NBIS20260116C95 into a test of $107.99 resistance.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NBIS's performance after a 10% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates favorable results. The 10-day win rate is 55.41%, with an average return of 6.84% over that period. However, the maximum return during the backtest was 35.26%, which suggests that while the strategy has a high probability of positive returns, the potential for exceptionally high gains is limited.

AI Infrastructure Megatrend Validates Nebius' 9.9% Rally: Watch $107.99 Breakout
The 9.93% intraday surge validates Nebius' strategic positioning in the AI infrastructure megatrend, with Microsoft and NVIDIA partnerships creating a durable revenue stream. Technical indicators suggest the rally could extend toward $115 as the stock trades above all major moving averages. Investors should monitor the $107.99 52-week high level for a potential breakout, with the $96.55 intraday low serving as critical support. With Microsoft (MSFT) up 0.055% as sector leader, the broader IT Services sector remains supportive. Aggressive position sizing in high-leverage calls like NBIS20260116C95 could capitalize on the next leg of the rally if the stock breaks above $107.99.