¿Es Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) un objetivo de compra en 2026 en el auge de la infraestructura de IA?

The AI infrastructure sector is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by insatiable demand for compute power and the strategic ambitions of tech giants. At the center of this transformation is Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS), a high-growth player that has captured attention with its rapid revenue expansion, strategic partnerships, and aggressive infrastructure plans. As market analysis shows, the market braces for a projected $500 billion in AI infrastructure spending in 2026, the question looms: Is Nebius a prime acquisition target for hyperscalers like Microsoft, NVIDIA, or AWS?

Strategic Positioning: A Hyperscaler's Playbook

Nebius's recent financial and operational milestones underscore its appeal. In Q3 2025, the company reported $146 million in revenue, a 355% year-over-year increase, fueled by a $3 billion, five-year contract with Meta and a multi-billion-dollar agreement with Microsoft for AI infrastructure. These agreements provide not only revenue visibility but also a blueprint for scaling AI infrastructure. By 2026, Nebius aims to connect 800–1,000 megawatts of power capacity, up from 220 megawatts in 2025, positioning itself as a critical node in the global AI supply chain.

Technologically, Nebius has leveraged NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultra compute capabilities to launch AI Cloud 3.1, the first European cloud service to deploy NVIDIA's GB300 NVL72 and HGX B300 systems in production. This integration aligns with the broader industry shift toward Blackwell GPUs, which NVIDIA highlights as a dominant force in its $57 billion fiscal Q3 2026 revenue. For acquirers, Nebius's ability to deliver cutting-edge infrastructure at scale could fill gaps in their own AI ecosystems.

The Economics of Buyouts: Valuation vs. Growth

Nebius's financials paint a picture of explosive growth but also valuation risks. The company projects $3.3 billion in 2026 revenue, a sixfold increase from 2025, and anticipates $7–$9 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by year-end. However, its current price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 65x raises eyebrows. By comparison, the recent $40 billion acquisition of Aligned Data Centers by Microsoft, NVIDIA, and BlackRock suggests acquirers may demand more disciplined metrics.

Yet Nebius's unique value proposition could justify a premium. Its contracts with Meta and Microsoft provide a defensible revenue backlog exceeding $20 billion, while its power infrastructure expansion reduces reliance on third-party data centers-a critical advantage in an era where physical capacity is as valuable as software. For acquirers like AWS, which allocated $110 billion to AI infrastructure in 2025, Nebius's assets could accelerate their transition from cloud provider to AI utility.

Strategic Fit with Potential Buyers

Microsoft, NVIDIA, and AWS each have compelling reasons to consider Nebius:
1. Microsoft: Already a partner, Microsoft's investment in OpenAI and its push to integrate AI into productivity tools demand robust infrastructure. Acquiring Nebius would consolidate its position against AWS and Google Cloud.
2. NVIDIA: As the Blackwell GPU's primary supplier, NVIDIA benefits from vertical integration. Nebius's AI Cloud 3.1, which relies on NVIDIA hardware, could become a showcase for the company's end-to-end AI stack.
3. AWS: With OpenAI shifting $38 billion in GPU demand from Azure to AWS, Amazon may seek to lock in Nebius's capacity to secure long-term supply and undercut rivals.

Risks and Realities

Despite its strengths, Nebius faces execution risks. Scaling to 800–1,000 megawatts requires navigating supply chain bottlenecks and power grid constraints. Additionally, its reliance on debt and equity financing-via an ATM program of up to 25 million shares-could strain balance sheets if growth falters. For acquirers, these challenges may temper enthusiasm, though the urgency of the AI arms race could outweigh them.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Chess Move

Nebius Group's trajectory mirrors the broader AI infrastructure boom: high growth, high stakes, and high valuations. While its current P/S ratio appears stretched, its strategic partnerships, technological edge, and infrastructure ambitions make it a tantalizing target for hyperscalers racing to dominate the AI era. A buyout in 2026 would likely hinge on whether Nebius can deliver on its 2026 revenue projections and maintain its leadership in Blackwell-powered deployments. For now, the market watches closely-knowing that in AI, timing is everything.