Nebius: ¿Puede un mecanismo de crecimiento del 400% duplicarse en 2026?

The market opportunity for Nebius is not just large; it is projected to explode. Consulting firm Deloitte forecasts that AI data center power demand in the U.S. alone could surge from an estimated 4 gigawatts in 2024 to a staggering 123 gigawatts by 2035. This isn't a distant dream. In reality, demand is already outpacing supply, a dynamic that has left Nebius's data center capacity fully booked and built a substantial contractual backlog. This fundamental imbalance creates a powerful tailwind for any provider that can scale its physical infrastructure.

The company's business model is a direct play on this scarcity. Nebius rents out GPU clusters to AI hyperscalers, offering a full-stack platform that combines hardware with software tools. This integrated approach has proven immensely popular, driving core infrastructure revenue to grow a remarkable 400% year over year in the third quarter. That explosive growth, which propelled total revenue to $146 million, demonstrates a clear path to capturing a significant share of the expanding pie. The annualized run rate for this core business now stands at $551 million, a figure that underscores the sheer scale of the market penetration already underway.

Yet, the scalability thesis faces a critical test: competition. Nebius operates in a crowded field with deep-pocketed rivals like CoreWeave, and new alternatives are emerging. The model itself is replicable, meaning the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory hinges on its execution in expanding capacity faster than competitors. The financials reveal the capital intensity of this race. To support its aggressive 2026 plans, Nebius has stated it will rely on corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity. This funding mix is a necessary investment to build the physical data centers required to serve the market, but it also highlights the significant capital commitment needed to convert a massive TAM into sustained revenue.

The bottom line is that Nebius has proven it can capture demand at an extraordinary pace. The question for 2026 is whether it can scale its operations to match the market's growth, turning its current 400% run rate into a durable, high-growth business. The opportunity is vast, but the path to dominance requires not just technological leadership, but the relentless execution of a capital-intensive expansion plan.

The Capital-Intensive Growth Path

Nebius's growth story is a classic capital-intensive expansion. The company's ability to maintain its hyper-growth trajectory is directly tied to its capacity to deploy massive amounts of physical infrastructure, a process that requires equally massive funding. The financial model is straightforward: sell out capacity, reinvest the revenue into building more, and repeat. This cycle is now accelerating dramatically.

The scale of the required investment is staggering. Nebius has just raised its capital expenditure guidance for the year from about $2 billion to roughly $5 billion. That means the company plans to spend an additional $3 billion in the final quarter alone. This isn't a minor budget adjustment; it's a full-scale sprint to meet demand. The market's reaction has been to reward this ambition. The stock has more than tripled over the past year, a clear vote of confidence in the company's ability to scale. Yet, this optimism is priced into a path that remains deeply capital-intensive and execution-dependent.

A key metric for sustainability is gross margin. Nebius holds a stable gross margin of 71%, which is impressive for a company at this scale. However, this figure must improve over time to match the operating leverage that larger peers achieve. The current stability is positive, but the path to higher margins is not automatic. It depends on the company's ability to negotiate favorable terms for hardware procurement, optimize its software stack, and spread fixed costs over a much larger installed base. For now, the focus is on growth, not margin expansion.

The financing plan to fund this expansion is a mix of corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity. This diversified approach is necessary to manage risk and access different capital pools. But it also introduces complexity and potential pressure on future financials. The heavy investment in 2025 and 2026 will naturally pressure near-term profitability, as seen in the current adj. EBITDA of $(5.2M). The company's guidance, however, points to a future where these investments pay off. Management has set an ambitious target for the end of 2026, aiming for an annual recurring revenue (ARR) run rate of $7-9 billion. More than half of that target is already booked, providing a tangible foundation for the growth plan.

The bottom line is that Nebius is betting its future on a capital-intensive model of scaling faster than the competition. The financials show a company that is executing its plan with conviction, backed by overwhelming demand. The risks are clear: execution missteps, cost overruns, or a slowdown in the AI infrastructure build-out could strain the balance sheet. For now, the path is set. The company's ability to convert its massive capital commitments into operational capacity and, eventually, into higher-margin profits, will determine whether its 400% growth engine can double in 2026.

Catalysts, Risks, and the 2026 Timeline

The path to doubling Nebius's growth engine in 2026 is now clearly mapped, with a series of near-term catalysts and a defined timeline for execution. The company's own guidance provides the roadmap: the heavy lifting for capacity expansion is happening in the final quarter of 2025, with new sites coming online in the UK, Israel, and Finland, and the start of Phase 1 for the New Jersey facility tied to its Microsoft deal. This ramp-up is the primary driver for accelerating revenue growth. The September annual recurring revenue (ARR) run rate of $551 million is expected to surge as these new waves of capacity go live, setting the stage for a sharp acceleration in the first half of 2026.

The forward-looking framework for investors is straightforward. The key near-term catalyst is the conversion of this new capacity into booked revenue. Management has reiterated its ambitious target for the end of 2026, aiming for an ARR run rate of $7-9 billion, with more than half already contracted. The timeline for achieving this is aggressive, requiring a near-doubling of the current ARR within 15 months. Success hinges on flawless execution of these complex, capital-intensive deployments. Any delays in bringing the UK, Israel, or New Jersey sites online as planned could disrupt the revenue growth trajectory and test the company's ability to maintain its current pace.

The primary risk, therefore, is execution. The company has just raised its capital expenditure guidance to roughly $5 billion for the year, meaning it plans to spend an additional $3 billion in the final quarter alone. This level of investment is necessary to meet overwhelming demand, but it also concentrates the risk. The financials show stability, with a gross margin of 71% and an adjusted EBITDA margin for the core business of nearly 19%. However, investors should monitor quarterly ARR growth and margin trends for signs of operational leverage. The path to higher margins is not automatic; it depends on the company's ability to spread fixed costs over a much larger installed base and negotiate favorable terms for hardware procurement.

Another critical factor is the cost and terms of the new financing rounds required to fund this expansion. The company plans to use corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity. While this diversified approach manages risk, it introduces complexity and potential pressure on future financials. The heavy investment in 2025 and 2026 will naturally pressure near-term profitability, as seen in the current adj. EBITDA of $(5.2M). The forward view is that these investments will pay off, but the timeline is tight. For now, the catalysts are clear, the risks are execution and capital, and the 2026 timeline is set. The market will be watching closely for signs that the company can scale its operations as fast as the market is growing.