NEARJPY - -39.49% in 24 Hours Amid Market Volatility

On SEP 6 2025, the NEARJPY pair dropped by 39.49% within 24 hours, settling at $353.4. Over the preceding week, the pair surged by 249.64%, while over the past month, it posted a 120.38% increase. Despite these recent gains, the 1-year performance remains significantly negative at -5430.9%. The sharp 24-hour decline highlights heightened market sensitivity and suggests ongoing volatility that may be attributed to broader macroeconomic or market-specific triggers.

The decline follows a period of strong momentum, with NEARJPY breaking out of a consolidation phase and reaching new relative highs. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed signs of overbought conditions in the days prior to the drop. However, these signals were not acted upon by the market until a sharp reversal occurred. The RSI, which had climbed above 70, indicated a potential pullback, but the timing and magnitude of the correction exceeded typical expectations.

Analysts project further price instability in the near term, citing the lack of clear fundamental anchors and the reliance of the NEARJPY pair on speculative sentiment. Given the current price action, traders are advised to remain cautious and manage risk through stop-loss mechanisms and position sizing. The pair is expected to continue trading within a volatile range until a definitive trend emerges from the current consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A proposed backtesting strategy involves using a combination of RSI and MACD to identify potential reversal points. The strategy would trigger a short position when RSI exceeds 70 and MACD shows a bearish crossover. Stop-loss and take-profit levels would be set based on recent swing highs and lows. This approach is designed to capture short-term corrections in an overbought market environment. Given the recent performance and technical setup, this strategy may have offered a framework for capitalizing on the recent downturn.