NDAQ Outperforms Industry, Trades at a Discount: How to Play the Stock

Shares of Nasdaq, Inc. NDAQ have gained 11.6% in the past year, outperforming the industry's decline of 1.4% and the Finance sector’s return of 8.7%.

With a market capitalization of $48.78 billion, the average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 4.4 million. NDAQ has a solid track record of beating earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average of 4.78%.

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NDAQ Shares are Undervalued

Nasdaq shares are trading at a discount to the Zacks Securities and Exchange industry. Its forward price-to-earnings of 21.81X is lower than the industry average of 22.14X.

Shares of Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ICE are also trading at a discount to the industry average, while Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOE and CME Group Inc. CME shares are trading at a multiple higher than the industry average.

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NDAQ’s Growth Projection Encourages

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nasdaq’s 2026 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 9.7%. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $5.66 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 7.9%.

The consensus estimate for 2027 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 12.4% and 7.8%, respectively, from the corresponding 2026 estimates.

The long-term earnings growth is expected to be 14.3%, better than the industry average of 11.2%.

Optimist Analyst Sentiment on NDAQ

Three of the 12 analysts covering the stock have raised estimates for 2026, and four analysts have raised the same for 2027 over the past 30 days. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings has moved up 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, in the past 30 days.

Average Target Price for NDAQ Suggests Upside

Based on short-term price targets offered by 16 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $112.13 per share. The average suggests a potential 29.6% upside from the last closing price.

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Nasdaq’s Favorable Return on Capital

Return on equity in the trailing 12 months was 16.9%, better than the industry average of 15.2%. This highlights the company’s efficiency in utilizing shareholders’ funds.

Also, the return on invested capital (ROIC) has been increasing over the last few quarters as the company raised its capital investment over the same time frame, reflecting NDAQ’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income. ROIC in the trailing 12 months was 7.6%, better than the industry average of 7.3%.

What's Aiding NDAQ's Performance?

Nasdaq’s organic growth has also been aided by its strategy of accelerating its non-trading revenue base, which includes Trading Services and Marketplace Technology businesses, Data & Listing Services, Index and Workflow & Insights businesses and Anti-Financial Crime business, thereby infusing dynamism in its business profile.

Growth in non-trading segments was driven by Index revenue growth, demand for IR and ESG solutions and steady analytics solutions sales to asset managers and growth in recurring data revenues. Anti-Financial Crime revenues should continue to gain from solid demand for fraud detection and anti-money laundering solutions, as well as the SaaS-based surveillance solutions.

Nasdaq focuses on cross-selling multiple products to existing clients and integrating acquisitions to broaden its solutions portfolio, increasing customer stickiness and revenue visibility.

Nasdaq has grown meaningfully over the years through a number of strategic expansions. These acquisitions have helped the company gain direct access to the Canadian equities market, expand its technology offering and improve its market surveillance techniques.

Nasdaq boasts a healthy balance sheet and cash position along with modest operating cash flow from its diverse business model. A healthy balance sheet ensures the distribution of wealth to shareholders in the form of dividend hikes and share repurchases.

End Notes

Nasdaq is set to grow on impressive organic growth, an increasing on-trading revenue base and strategic buyouts to capitalize on market opportunities. Nasdaq’s focus on Market Technology and Information Services businesses helps explore vast opportunities through its developmental strategies.

NDAQ’s dividend story is impressive. Per its growth strategy, Nasdaq will bring the payout ratio of 35% to 38% by 2027 and resume share buybacks to offset dilution due to the Adenza buyout.

Higher return on capital, favorable growth estimates and attractive valuations should continue to benefit NDAQ over the long term.
It is, therefore, wise to hold on to this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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