Navegación en la curva de rendimientos: rotación sectorial y posicionamiento de mercado en un entorno cambiante de tasas de interés

The U.S. 4-week Treasury Bill (T-Bill) yield, a critical barometer of short-term interest rate expectations, has recently stabilized at 3.64% as of December 17, 2025, reflecting a 0.73 percentage point decline from its 4.34% level a year earlier. This downward trend, which began in late 2024, underscores a broader shift in monetary policy and investor sentiment. While the yield has retreated from its 2024 peak of 6.13%, the market's focus has shifted to how this evolving landscape is reshaping sector rotation and portfolio positioning.

The Yield Curve as a Policy Signal

The 4-week T-Bill yield, closely tied to the Federal Funds rate, has fallen 0.17 percentage points over the past month, signaling expectations of a Fed pivot toward easing. This decline has created a steeper yield curve, with the 2-year Treasury note yield dropping to 3.47% (a 13-basis-point decline in November 2025) while the 10-year yield remains anchored near 4.25%. The steepening curve reflects a market bet on near-term rate cuts, as investors price in a “soft landing” scenario where inflation moderation outpaces economic slowdowns.

Sector Rotation: Winners and Losers in a Lower-Rate World

Investors are recalibrating portfolios to capitalize on the shifting yield curve. Sectors with strong fundamentals in a slowing economy—such as healthcare and construction—have attracted inflows, driven by robust job growth in November 2025 (64,000 nonfarm payrolls added). These sectors benefit from stable demand and long-term growth narratives, making them attractive in a lower-rate environment. Conversely, underperforming sectors like transportation and leisure face scrutiny due to weaker credit profiles and exposure to discretionary spending.

Duration extension has also gained traction. Bond investors are locking in yields on 5–7-year Treasuries, avoiding the volatility of long-dated debt while capturing higher returns. This strategy aligns with a Fed easing cycle, where intermediate-term bonds offer a balance of income and risk mitigation. Meanwhile, curve-flattening trades—shorting long-term Treasuries and going long on intermediate debt—have proliferated, anticipating that eventual rate cuts will compress long-term yields.

Diversification Beyond Traditional Boundaries

The structural shift in stock-bond correlations—now positive due to persistent inflation and fiscal imbalances—has forced investors to rethink diversification. Alternatives such as commodities, digital assets, and liquid alternatives are gaining ground, offering uncorrelated returns. International equities, particularly in markets with weaker dollar exposure, have also seen renewed interest. For instance, unhedged positions in European and emerging market equities have outperformed as the U.S. dollar weakens, amplifying returns for foreign-currency gains.

Strategic Recommendations for Investors

1. Tactical Duration Extension: Prioritize intermediate-term Treasuries (3–7 years) to capture higher yields while minimizing exposure to long-term volatility.
2. Sector Rotation: Overweight sectors with resilient demand (e.g., healthcare, construction) and underweight cyclical sectors (e.g., transportation, leisure).
3. Curve-Flattening Trades: Hedge against rate cuts by shorting long-term bonds and going long on intermediate debt.
4. Diversification into Alternatives: Allocate to commodities, digital assets, and international equities to reduce portfolio correlation with U.S. markets.
5. Scenario Planning: Prepare for both a “soft landing” (gradual rate cuts) and a “recessionary pivot” (aggressive easing) by maintaining liquidity buffers and stress-testing portfolios.

Conclusion

The U.S. 4-week T-Bill yield's decline to 3.64% is more than a technical detail—it is a signal of broader market expectations and policy shifts. Investors who adapt their strategies to this evolving landscape, leveraging sector rotation, yield curve dynamics, and alternative diversification, are better positioned to navigate the uncertainties ahead. As the Fed's easing cycle gains momentum, the key to success lies in balancing income generation with risk management, ensuring portfolios remain agile in a world where traditional safe havens are no longer guaranteed.