Navegando por la volatilidad de fin de año: el caso de la rotación táctica hacia la infraestructura de energía e IA

As 2025 draws to a close, investors face a familiar yet evolving challenge: managing year-end volatility amid overbought tech positions and shifting macroeconomic dynamics. The Nasdaq 100's meteoric rise-driven by AI euphoria and robust earnings-has pushed its valuation to precarious levels, with the tech sector's 36% weighting in the S&P 500 echoing the imbalances of the dotcom era. Meanwhile, energy and AI infrastructure sectors are emerging as compelling alternatives for tactical rotation, offering resilience, structural tailwinds, and risk-adjusted returns in a market increasingly prone to rapid corrections.

The Overbought Tech Sector: A Cautionary Signal

The fourth quarter of 2025 has been marked by extreme overbought conditions in the tech sector. The Nasdaq 100's relative strength index (RSI) hit oversold levels in early 2025, a rare event in the past decade, fueling a bullish momentum that pushed valuations to unsustainable heights. This was compounded by record-breaking options trading volumes, with daily turnover exceeding 100 million contracts, reflecting speculative fervor around AI narratives. However, late-year corrections-triggered by profit-taking and valuation reassessments-have exposed vulnerabilities. According to market analysis, institutional investors are now prioritizing profitability over speculative growth, signaling a potential shift in sentiment.

Energy Sector: Resilience Amid Volatility

In contrast to the tech sector's turbulence, the energy sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Infrastructure investments in Q4 2025 delivered double-digit returns (10%-13% gross of fees), driven by electrification trends and AI-driven electricity demand. The sector's fundamentals are further bolstered by its attractive valuation metrics: a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.2x and dividend yields that outperform the market. For instance, Plains All American Pipeline offers an 8% yield with a strong dividend coverage ratio of 1.8x, while Devon Energy's 2.65% forward yield appeals to income-focused investors. These metrics highlight energy's appeal as a defensive play in a risk-off environment.

AI Infrastructure: A High-Growth, High-Volatility Play

AI infrastructure remains a cornerstone of long-term growth, but its trajectory in Q4 2025 has been volatile. Hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft have ramped up capex to $400 billion over two years, while OpenAI's Stargate Project alone plans $400 billion in AI infrastructure investments by 2028. However, the sector's overvaluation concerns-exacerbated by a 1.8% decline in large-cap growth stocks-have prompted a reevaluation of risk-return profiles. Despite the lack of concrete Sharpe ratio data, the convergence of AI and digital asset infrastructure (e.g., bitcoin miners expanding into AI compute) underscores its strategic potential according to industry analysis.

Strategic Rotation: Balancing Risk and Opportunity