Navigating the New Trade Era: Investing in UK/Irish Financial Infrastructure for Cross-Border Resilience

The geopolitical landscape is reshaping global trade, and with it, the financial systems that underpin it. As the UK and EU finalize post-Brexit trade reforms, the stage is set for a surge in demand for cross-border financial infrastructure that can navigate regulatory fragmentation, geopolitical risks, and supply chain complexities. For investors, this is a pivotal moment to capitalize on firms positioned to thrive in this new order. Let's dissect the opportunities.

Cross-Border Payment Platforms: The Lifeline of Trade Integration

The UK-EU reforms have slashed non-tariff barriers, but the real game-changer is the streamlining of cross-border payments. Under the Windsor Framework, businesses no longer face the double burden of EU and UK VAT compliance for goods deemed “not at risk” of entering the EU single market. This simplification is a goldmine for payment platforms that can automate compliance, reduce transaction costs, and offer real-time settlement.

Investment Opportunity: Firms like World First (now part of Ant Group) and Revolut are leading the charge with AI-driven platforms that dynamically adjust to regulatory changes. Their ability to offer multi-currency accounts and compliance-as-a-service (CaaS) modules positions them to capture 20% of the EU-UK payment volume growth projected by 2026.

Regulatory-Compliant Fintech: The Shield Against Fragmentation

The EU's Listing Act reforms and the UK's Edinburgh Reforms have created a divergent regulatory landscape, but this presents an opportunity for fintech firms that can straddle both systems. The Goods Not at Risk mechanism and PSD2 compliance frameworks are driving demand for tools that automate regulatory reporting and standardize cross-border data flows.

Crypto and AI-driven solutions are particularly compelling. The UK's FCA crypto regulations (effective 2025) require exchanges to meet transparency and operational resilience standards—a hurdle that only regulatory-compliant fintechs can clear. Firms like Blockchain.com and Coinbase are already building cross-border crypto settlement layers to serve institutional investors, while AI platforms like Finastra are automating compliance checks for EU-UK cross-border lending.

Supply Chain Finance Tools: Bridging Geopolitical Gaps

Supply chain disruptions have made dynamic financing solutions critical. Firms that provide trade finance digitization and risk mitigation tools are now essential to businesses navigating fragmented supply chains. The UK's debating protections reforms (extending account termination notice periods to 90 days) and the EU's Savings and Investment Union plans are accelerating demand for real-time liquidity management systems.

Investment Opportunity: Taulia and SAP Ariba are pioneers in self-liquidating supply chain finance, enabling SMEs to access instant credit backed by cross-border receivables. Their platforms, which integrate blockchain for audit trails and AI for risk assessment, are poised to capture a growing share of the £120bn EU-UK SME finance market.

The Catalyst: Geopolitical Tensions Driving Demand

While trade reforms reduce friction, geopolitical risks—from energy shortages to cyber threats—are intensifying the need for resilient financial infrastructure. The UK-EU Security and Defence Partnership, which grants UK firms access to the EU's €150bn SAFE fund, underscores the strategic shift toward coordinated cross-border resilience.

Firms that blend regulatory expertise with operational agility—like Metro Bank (post-AML fines) and Lloyds Banking Group—are rebuilding trust through AI-driven compliance systems. Meanwhile, insurtechs like B3i are creating parametric insurance products to cover trade disruptions, a segment expected to grow 25% annually.

Act Now: The Window for Strategic Investment

The reforms of 2024–2025 are irreversible. Cross-border payment platforms, regulatory-compliant fintechs, and supply chain finance tools are the three pillars of this new financial ecosystem. Investors who act now can secure stakes in firms that will dominate this space.

• Immediate Plays: Allocate to Revolut (payment innovation) and Finastra (regulatory automation).
• Long-Term Gains: Back Taulia (supply chain finance) and Blockchain.com (cross-border crypto).

The data is clear: cross-border financial infrastructure is the next frontier. With geopolitical risks and regulatory clarity driving demand, this is a sector where resilience meets reward.

The future of trade is here. Invest in the systems that will power it.