Navigating Near-Term Market Catalysts: Earnings and Macroeconomic Data to Watch This Week

The week of August 26, 2025, is shaping up as a pivotal period for investors, with a confluence of corporate earnings reports and macroeconomic data releases poised to drive volatility in equities and bond markets. As the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory remains a central concern, the interplay between corporate performance and economic indicators will likely dictate market sentiment ahead of the August 29 trading session.

Earnings Spotlight: Tech and Retailers in the Crosshairs
MongoDB (MDB) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) are among the standout names to watch this week. MongoDB’s Q2 results, reported on August 25, showcased a 66% beat on adjusted EPS and a 22% revenue growth, fueled by strong adoption of its Atlas cloud platform [1]. The company’s upward revision of 2026 guidance—now projecting $3.64–$3.73 in adjusted EPS—signals confidence in sustained momentum [1]. CrowdStrike, meanwhile, reported Q2 revenue of $1.17 billion, a 21.3% year-over-year increase, with non-GAAP earnings surpassing estimates by 12.1% [2]. These results highlight the resilience of cloud and cybersecurity sectors, which could buoy broader tech indices.

Retailers like Walmart and Intuit, which reported earnings earlier in the month, also provide context. Walmart’s mixed results—strong e-commerce growth offset by weak in-store sales—underscore the fragility of consumer spending [6]. Intuit’s robust performance, driven by tax software demand, contrasts with this trend, illustrating divergent consumer behavior [6].

Macroeconomic Data: GDP and Inflation in Focus
The second estimate of Q2 GDP, due on August 28, is expected to revise the initial 3.0% growth rate upward to 3.1% [3]. This revision, driven by updated data on consumer spending and trade, could reinforce the narrative of a resilient economy. However, analysts caution that this strength may be temporary, with Deloitte forecasting a slowdown to 1.4% annualized growth in 2025 amid weakening consumption and investment [4].

The August 29 releases of the Advance International Trade in Goods and the Personal Income and PCE Deflator will further test market nerves. The PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, is projected to remain above the 2.0% target, with core PCE rising at a 2.5% annual rate in Q2 [5]. Persistent inflationary pressures, exacerbated by elevated tariffs, could delay rate cuts in 2026 [4].

Volatility Drivers and Strategic Implications
The interplay between these catalysts will likely amplify Friday’s market volatility. A stronger-than-expected GDP print could spur risk-on sentiment, particularly in growth stocks like MongoDB and CrowdStrike. Conversely, a PCE deflator that exceeds forecasts might reignite concerns about prolonged high rates, pressuring bond yields and tech valuations. Investors should also monitor Alibaba’s earnings on August 21, as China’s economic trajectory remains a wildcard for global markets [6].

Conclusion
This week’s data and earnings releases offer a microcosm of the broader economic and market challenges. While corporate results in the tech sector suggest optimism, macroeconomic trends hint at underlying fragility. Investors must balance these signals, hedging against divergent outcomes as the Fed’s policy path remains uncertain.

Source:
[1] MongoDB Set to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for ... [https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mongodb-set-report-q2-earnings-whats-store-stock]
[2] CrowdStrike's (NASDAQ:CRWD) Q2 Sales Beat Estimates ... [https://finviz.com/news/151605/crowdstrikes-nasdaq-crwd-q2-sales-beat-estimates-but-stock-drops]
[3] US Growth Rate Hits 3.0% in Q2 Amid Weak Consumption, [https://cepr.net/publications/gdp-quarter-2-2025-report/]
[4] United States Economic Forecast Q2 2025, [https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html]
[5] US Growth Rate Hits 3.0% in Q2 Amid Weak Consumption, [https://cepr.net/publications/gdp-quarter-2-2025-report/]