Navegando la tormenta: la inestabilidad legal de las tarifas de Trump y su impacto en los mercados globales

The legal and economic landscape in 2025 has been profoundly shaped by the unresolved status of President Donald Trump's sweeping 2025 tariffs, which remain suspended in a precarious legal limbo. With the U.S. Supreme Court poised to deliver a landmark ruling on the legality of these tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) in early 2026, investors and policymakers alike are bracing for a potential seismic shift in trade policy. This uncertainty has already triggered volatility in global equity markets, reshaped corporate strategies, and forced investors to recalibrate their risk assessments.

Legal Uncertainty and Regulatory Risk

The core issue lies in the Trump administration's use of emergency powers to justify tariffs on nearly all countries and products, a move that federal courts have criticized for its lack of congressional oversight and indefinite scope. While a federal court initially blocked some tariffs under IEEPA, an appeals court temporarily halted this decision, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect pending the Supreme Court's final ruling. Legal experts warn that if the Court deems the tariffs invalid, the administration may pivot to Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974-a more conventional but narrower legal framework-to sustain high tariffs. This potential pivot introduces regulatory ambiguity, as Section 301 requires a more rigorous demonstration of unfair trade practices, complicating the administration's ability to maintain broad-based tariffs.

Businesses and importers are already preparing for the possibility of duty refunds if the IEEPA tariffs are invalidated, though the Treasury Department's handling of such refunds has drawn criticism for inefficiency and lack of transparency. This regulatory uncertainty underscores the fragility of the current trade policy architecture, with the Supreme Court's decision likely to redefine the legal boundaries of executive power in trade.

Market Volatility and Investor Behavior

The legal uncertainty surrounding the tariffs has had a palpable impact on global equity markets. J.P. Morgan Global Research estimates that IEEPA-based tariffs account for 61% of the year-to-date increase in U.S. tariffs, with any reversal expected to trigger short-term volatility as the administration seeks alternative legal justifications. This volatility has already manifested in sharp sell-offs, such as the S&P 500's decline in late 2025, and heightened fluctuations in bond and commodity markets.

Investors are increasingly adopting defensive strategies to mitigate exposure to trade policy risks. BlackRock has extended its tactical investment horizon from three to 12 months, emphasizing selectivity in sectors and favoring assets like gold and short-term U.S. Treasuries as hedges against uncertainty. Similarly, Northern Trust advises prioritizing quality assets with strong cash flows and balance sheets, while avoiding overexposure to sectors vulnerable to tariff-driven inflation. These strategies reflect a broader shift toward portfolio resilience, with investors prioritizing flexibility to adapt to rapidly changing trade dynamics.

Strategic Adjustments for Portfolio Resilience

Beyond asset allocation, companies are proactively adjusting their operations to buffer against tariff-related disruptions. Supply chain diversification, stockpiling of critical materials, and dynamic pricing strategies have become standard practices. For example, multinational corporations are accelerating shifts to nearshoring and regional manufacturing hubs to reduce reliance on U.S. import corridors.

These operational changes, while costly, are seen as necessary to insulate businesses from retaliatory measures and retaliatory tariffs from key trading partners.

The economic implications of prolonged trade uncertainty are also concerning. Elevated tariffs have contributed to inflationary pressures, complicating corporate capital spending decisions and raising the specter of stagflation or a global recession. Geopolitical tensions further exacerbate these risks, with retaliatory measures from countries like China and the European Union threatening to escalate trade conflicts.

Conclusion

As the Supreme Court prepares to rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, the investment community faces a critical juncture. The potential invalidation of IEEPA-based tariffs could force a rapid recalibration of trade policy, with cascading effects on global markets. Investors must remain vigilant, balancing short-term hedging with long-term strategic adjustments to navigate this volatile environment. The path forward demands not only a nuanced understanding of legal and regulatory risks but also a commitment to building portfolios capable of withstanding the next wave of trade policy turbulence.