Navegando por la rotación de sectores: materiales de construcción y servicios de energía en el contexto de las tasas de hipotecas en ascenso

The U.S. MBA 30-year mortgage rate surged to 6.38% in the week ending December 12, 2025, marking a 0.05% increase from the prior week. This rise, driven by market anticipation of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle nearing its end, has sent ripples through the housing market, with mortgage applications declining 3.8% and refinancing activity plummeting 3.6%. While the broader economy grapples with the implications of elevated borrowing costs, investors are increasingly turning their attention to sector rotation opportunities in Construction Materials and Energy Utilities—industries poised to adapt to, and potentially benefit from, the evolving rate environment.

Construction Materials: Resilience Amid Headwinds

The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) has underperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin, falling 17% over the past 12 months and 16% in the last two months alone. High mortgage rates and record home prices have dampened demand for new residential construction, creating a challenging backdrop for the sector. However, niche players within the construction materials space have demonstrated resilience.

Companies like Installed Building Products (IBP) and TopBuild (BLD) have bucked the trend, with IBP surging 41% year-to-date and BLD gaining 30%. These firms have leveraged strategic acquisitions, share repurchases, and operational efficiencies to offset broader market pressures. For example, IBP's Q3 2025 results highlighted record revenue and net income, driven by $58 million in newly acquired revenue and $135 million in buybacks. Similarly, BLD's $1.2 billion in acquisition-driven revenue and $417 million in share repurchases underscore the importance of disciplined capital allocation in a high-rate environment.

Cavco Industries (CVCO), a manufacturer of affordable manufactured homes, has also outperformed, rising 28% year-to-date. Its success highlights a critical demand driver: affordability. As home prices remain elevated, demand for cost-effective housing solutions persists, offering a tailwind for companies like CVCO.

Energy Utilities: A Hedge Against Rate Volatility

While not directly tied to home construction, the Energy Utilities sector has emerged as a relative safe haven in a volatile rate environment. The Morningstar US Utilities Index has surged 19% year-to-date as of August 2025, with cumulative gains of 71% since its October 2023 low. This outperformance reflects growing demand for stable, dividend-paying assets amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

The sector's appeal is further bolstered by its role in supporting infrastructure and digital transformation. Deloitte's 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook notes that demand for data centers and industrial facilities—sectors requiring robust energy infrastructure—remains strong. Energy utilities with exposure to these areas, particularly those offering hybrid solutions like geothermal or on-site natural gas generation, are well-positioned to capitalize on long-term trends.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts—two in the past nine months—have introduced optimism about stabilizing borrowing costs. While legacy commercial real estate loans maturing at 3.9% face refinancing challenges in a 6.6% environment, new projects with favorable terms are gaining traction. This dynamic could drive demand for energy utilities, especially those aligned with infrastructure upgrades and renewable energy transitions.

Rotation Opportunities: Strategic Considerations

For investors seeking sector rotation opportunities, the key lies in identifying sub-sectors and companies that can thrive despite—or even because of—rate volatility. In Construction Materials, focus on firms with strong balance sheets, diversified revenue streams, and a focus on affordability-driven segments like manufactured housing. IBP, BLD, and CVCO exemplify this profile.

In Energy Utilities, prioritize companies with exposure to infrastructure and digital infrastructure growth. Those with hybrid energy solutions or partnerships with data center operators (e.g., firms supplying reliable power to high-demand sectors) offer compelling long-term potential. Additionally, utilities with strong dividend yields and stable cash flows remain attractive as inflation-hedging assets.

Conclusion: Balancing Caution and Opportunity

The surge in the 30-year mortgage rate to 6.38% underscores the fragility of the housing market and the broader economy. Yet, within this volatility lie opportunities for investors willing to look beyond the headlines. Construction Materials and Energy Utilities sectors, while facing distinct challenges, offer pathways to growth through innovation, strategic capital allocation, and alignment with macroeconomic trends.

As the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle progresses, the construction and energy landscapes may see renewed activity. Investors who position themselves in resilient sub-sectors—whether through ETFs like ITB or individual stocks like IBP and CVCO—stand to benefit from the eventual stabilization of borrowing costs and the enduring demand for infrastructure and affordable housing.

In a world where rate volatility defines the investment landscape, the ability to identify and act on sector rotation opportunities will separate the astute from the complacent. The time to act is now.