Navegando la corrección de los metales preciosos: ¿Es esta una oportunidad de compra o una señal de advertencia?

The precious metals market in late 2025 is at a crossroads, with gold and silver exhibiting divergent technical signals amid a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty. As central banks recalibrate monetary policy and global inflationary pressures persist, investors face a critical question: Is the current correction in gold and silver a strategic entry point or a harbinger of deeper volatility? This analysis synthesizes technical and fundamental insights to evaluate the risks and opportunities.

Gold: A Tenuous Bullish Case Amid Structural Support

Gold's technical profile in November 2025 reflects a consolidation phase around the $4,000 level, a critical confluence of the 50-day SMA and dynamic support. While the RSI has stabilized near 50, indicating lower volatility, the absence of oversold conditions suggests further downside potential if the $4,000 threshold breaks according to technical analysis. Key resistance levels at $4,100 and $4,200 remain pivotal for bulls, with a sustained rebound above $4,200 signaling a resumption of the long-term uptrend.

Fundamentally, gold's structural demand from central banks-particularly in emerging markets-provides a floor for prices. Central banks added 410 tonnes of gold in the first half of 2025 alone, driven by a desire to diversify reserves and hedge against U.S. dollar fragility. However, fading rate-cut expectations and a stronger dollar have introduced near-term headwinds. The Federal Reserve's dovish pivot, while supportive of gold's appeal, has been tempered by persistent Treasury yields and geopolitical stability.

Silver: Overbought Momentum and Supply Dynamics

Silver's technical trajectory in November 2025 is more aggressive, with prices near $53.18 and the RSI in overbought territory at 80.95. This suggests stretched momentum and a high probability of consolidation. Immediate support levels at $51.95 and $50.75 are critical for maintaining the bullish bias, while a breakdown below $50.75 could trigger a retest of the 20-day EMA at $48.69.

Fundamentally, silver's rally is fueled by a dual narrative: a tightening physical supply chain and anticipation of Fed rate cuts. Analysts project silver prices averaging between $34 and $65 per ounce in 2025–2026, with Bank of America raising its 12-month target to $65. However, the market's reliance on speculative positioning-evidenced by intraday volatility exceeding 4% in November-introduces risks. A weaker dollar and inflationary pressures (U.S. CPI at 2.7% year-over-year) could prolong the uptrend, but a premature Fed tightening cycle or a surge in industrial demand could disrupt the balance.

Macroeconomic Crosscurrents: Inflation, Policy, and Geopolitical Risk

U.S. inflation expectations, as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's survey, remain steady at 3.2% for the one-year horizon, with core inflation at 2.6%. While these figures suggest a moderation in price pressures, the Fed's three rate cuts in 2025 have reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver. Central bank gold purchases, though slightly decelerating in November, continue to reinforce the metal's role as a geopolitical hedge.

The U.S. dollar's weakness, driven by dovish Fed policy and global diversification trends, has further amplified demand for precious metals. However, the dollar's inverse relationship with gold remains intact, and any reversal in the Fed's easing cycle could trigger a sharp correction.

Conclusion: Balancing Opportunity and Caution

The current correction in gold and silver presents a nuanced scenario. For gold, the $4,000 level offers a strategic entry point for long-term investors, supported by central bank demand and a structural bull case. However, the absence of a clear breakout above $4,200 suggests caution until macroeconomic clarity emerges. Silver, while technically overbought, benefits from a robust supply-demand imbalance and a weaker dollar, but its volatility demands tighter risk management.

Investors should monitor the Fed's December policy decision and central bank gold purchases for directional clues. In the near term, a disciplined approach-using key support levels as buying opportunities while capping downside exposure-may prove optimal. As the market navigates this inflection point, the interplay of technical signals and macroeconomic fundamentals will ultimately determine whether this correction marks the beginning of a new bull phase or a temporary setback.