Navegando las clausuras del mercado festivo: implicaciones estratégicas para las compras para el fin de año y las compras festivas

As the end of 2025 approaches, investors face a critical juncture in portfolio management: the seasonal liquidity shifts and market closures tied to U.S. holidays. With the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) set to close for full days on Thanksgiving (November 27), Christmas (December 25), and New Year's Day (January 1, 2026), and for early sessions on December 24 and November 28, the interplay between reduced trading activity and strategic positioning becomes paramount. Historical data and academic research underscore the need for proactive adjustments to mitigate risks and capitalize on seasonal patterns.

Liquidity Dynamics and Market Behavior

Market liquidity typically deteriorates during holiday periods, with trading volumes declining sharply. According to Russell Investments, U.S. equity volumes fall to 80% of normal levels on the day before Thanksgiving and drop further to 45% on the half-day session afterward. By mid-December, global liquidity wanes as investors wind down positions, leading to wider spreads, slower execution, and higher trading costs across equities, fixed income, and foreign exchange markets. For instance, equity volumes in December can fall to 45–70% of typical levels, while derivatives and credit markets face similar challenges.

The Christmas week exacerbates these effects. The NYSE's early closure on December 24 and full shutdown on December 25 amplify volatility, particularly for less actively traded securities. Historical analyses show abnormal positive returns on the day before Christmas, potentially driven by small investors' reluctance to trade pre-holiday. This liquidity crunch also fuels the "Santa rally," a phenomenon where year-end portfolio adjustments and reduced selling pressure push prices upward in the final days of December. However, this rally is not guaranteed, and thin volumes can lead to sharp, unpredictable price swings.

Strategic Positioning: Timing and Sector Focus

To navigate these dynamics, investors must align execution timelines with liquidity cycles. Russell Investments recommends completing major trades before mid-December or delaying them until early January, when liquidity rebounds. For example, large institutional investors often avoid executing significant orders in late November and December to reduce implementation risk.

Sector-specific seasonality further informs positioning. Retail and consumer discretionary stocks, such as Amazon (AMZN), historically outperform during the Thanksgiving-to-Christmas period, driven by increased consumer spending. Similarly, the travel and leisure sector benefits from heightened demand during holidays, while gold (GLD) exhibits a consistent upward trend when purchased on the second-to-last trading day before Christmas and held into the new year. These patterns highlight the importance of aligning sector allocations with seasonal demand cycles.

Academic Insights and Risk Mitigation

Academic studies reinforce the need for liquidity-aware strategies. Research indicates that reduced market participation during holidays leads to higher volatility in low-volume environments, amplifying price movements. For instance, the average bid order size increases pre-holiday, suggesting a higher likelihood of information-based trading. Additionally, investor sentiment follows a 5 + 2 cycle, with reduced volatility and elevated sentiment observed during weekends and holidays.

To mitigate risks, investors should:
1. Avoid large trades during thin liquidity periods (e.g., late November–early January).
2. Rebalance portfolios ahead of closures, prioritizing liquid assets to minimize execution costs.
3. Leverage sector-specific seasonality, overweighting consumer discretionary and travel stocks during holiday periods.
4. Monitor global liquidity shifts, as reduced participation in fixed income and foreign exchange markets can indirectly impact equity strategies.

Conclusion

The interplay between market holidays and liquidity presents both challenges and opportunities. By understanding historical patterns, sector dynamics, and liquidity cycles, investors can position portfolios to reduce risk and enhance returns. As the 2025 holiday season approaches, proactive timing and strategic sector focus will be key to navigating the unique conditions of a market shaped by seasonal closures.