Navegar por riesgos inflacionarios y la incertidumbre de la Fed: Estrategias de asignación de activos táticas para el año 2026 en medio de las tarifas de la era de Trump

Inflationary Pressures and Sectoral Impacts

The Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies have left an indelible mark on the U.S. economy. By 2025, the average effective tariff rate had surged to 15.8%, the highest since 1943, with further increases projected to 20.6% by mid-2025. These measures have directly inflated consumer prices, contributing 0.5 percentage points to headline PCE inflation in the June–August 2025 period and accounting for 10.9% of the 12-month PCE annual inflation rate as of August 2025.

Sector-specific impacts are stark. The pharmaceutical industry, for instance, faces a 100% tariff on imported drugs unless companies localize production, though J.P. Morgan notes minimal long-term harm to large-cap firms due to pre-existing domestic manufacturing shifts. Meanwhile, the automotive and steel sectors have seen a 0.2% reduction in U.S. GDP and 103,000 job losses, compounded by retaliatory tariffs from trade partners like Canada and China. Global ripple effects are equally pronounced: Canada's manufacturing sector lost 36,500 jobs in 2025, while Brazil's coffee exports to the U.S. plummeted by 32.2% year-over-year due to a 50% tariff.

Fed Policy: Balancing Act Amid Uncertainty

The Fed's response to these developments has been cautious. In June 2025, FOMC projections indicated a 3.1% PCE inflation rate for 2025, with expectations of a gradual decline to 2.4% by 2026. However, the central bank faces a dual challenge: managing inflation while avoiding a "stagflation lite" scenario. The San Francisco Fed notes that tariffs initially act as a negative demand shock, raising unemployment but eventually reversing to fuel inflation, peaking around three years post-implementation. This delayed effect complicates the Fed's ability to time rate adjustments, particularly as tariff validity remains legally uncertain, with potential Supreme Court rulings adding volatility.

Despite these challenges, the Fed has signaled a "soft landing" outlook for 2026, driven by AI-driven productivity gains and resilient consumer spending. However, investors should note that the Fed may resist sharp rate cuts-contrary to Trump's demands-until inflation shows sustained decline and labor market data stabilizes.

Tactical Asset Allocation for 2026

Given the inflationary headwinds and policy uncertainty, investors must adopt a defensive yet adaptive approach. Key strategies include:

1. Overweighting Bonds, Particularly International: With U.S. inflation expected to moderate to 2.4% by 2026, and global markets facing tariff-driven volatility, bonds-especially non-U.S. sovereign debt-offer a hedge against currency fluctuations and inflation. J.P. Morgan recommends an overweight position in international bonds to capitalize on divergent monetary policies and yield differentials.

2. Neutral Equities with Sectoral Selectivity: While a U.S. recession remains a risk, equities should be approached cautiously. Focus on sectors insulated from tariff impacts, such as technology (benefiting from AI-driven productivity) and healthcare (beyond pharmaceuticals). Avoid cyclical sectors like automotive and steel, which face structural headwinds.

3. Diversification into Commodities and Inflation-Linked Assets: Gold and real assets (e.g., real estate, infrastructure) can serve as inflation hedges. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) remain a core holding, though their yields may lag behind broader inflation trends.

1. Hedging Against Policy Shocks: Given the legal uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs, investors should maintain liquidity and consider derivatives to hedge against sudden market corrections if tariffs are invalidated.

Conclusion

The Trump-era tariffs have entrenched inflationary pressures and policy uncertainty, creating a landscape where tactical agility is paramount. While the Fed's 2026 projections suggest a soft landing, investors must remain vigilant against sector-specific risks and global trade volatility. By prioritizing defensive assets, sectoral selectivity, and liquidity, portfolios can navigate this complex environment while positioning for long-term resilience.