Navegando un mundo de mayor valor nominal: distribución estratégica de crédito y acciones en 2026

The investment landscape in 2026 is being reshaped by a structurally higher-inflation and higher-interest-rate environment. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have signaled a cautious approach to monetary policy, with inflation expected to remain above their 2% targets for much of the year. Meanwhile, investors must grapple with the implications of prolonged inflationary pressures and the uneven performance of asset classes. Active portfolio management, particularly in equities and credit, has emerged as a critical tool for navigating this complex backdrop.

The Fed's Outlook and the Inflation Conundrum

According to the Federal Reserve's December 2025 SEP, the central bank anticipates a gradual easing of interest rates in 2026, with a pause early in the year before implementing one or two rate cuts. By year-end, the fed funds rate is projected to settle in the 3% to 3.25% range. Goldman Sachs Research aligns with this view, forecasting two rate cuts in 2026, bringing the target range to a similar level. However, inflation remains a persistent challenge. JPMorgan predicts that year-over-year consumption deflator inflation will peak at 3.3% in late 2025 before declining to 2.4% by late 2026. This trajectory, however, hinges on mitigating factors such as the lingering effects of tariffs and a weaker U.S. dollar, which could extend inflationary pressures.

Active Equity Strategies: Balancing Risk and Return

In this environment, active equity strategies must prioritize sectors and geographies that can withstand or even benefit from inflation. Historical data reveals that energy, equity real estate investment trusts (REITs), and financials have historically outperformed during high-inflation periods. Energy stocks, for instance, have outperformed inflation 74% of the time in such environments, as their revenues are closely tied to energy prices-a key inflation driver. Similarly, equity REITs have provided a partial inflation hedge by passing price increases through rental contracts and property values, outperforming inflation 66% of the time.

For investors seeking a balanced approach, Alpha Enhanced equity strategies offer a compelling framework. These strategies blend passive and active management, allowing investors to optimize risk budgets by tracking a benchmark while incorporating active bets within predefined tracking-error limits (typically 50 to 200 basis points). By diversifying across market caps, sectors, and geographies, these strategies aim to generate consistent alpha while managing volatility.

Credit Markets: Opportunities in a High-Yield Environment

The credit market presents both challenges and opportunities in 2026. Higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs, but they also enhance the appeal of new bonds with higher yields. Vanguard notes that while existing bond prices typically decline in a rising-rate environment, the improved income prospects of new issues can offset this risk. For inflation protection, investors should consider inflation-linked government bonds, commodities, and real assets equities-a blend of energy, real estate, and commodity stocks.

Private credit and high-yield bonds have historically outperformed equities in high-inflation settings. PivotalPath's research highlights that hedge fund composite indices returned 12.2% annualized compared to the S&P 500's 5.2% during periods when 10-year Treasury yields reached 3% or higher. Similarly, global high-yield bonds with yields above 7% have delivered positive returns 90% of the time over 12 months, offering better volatility control and faster recovery from drawdowns. Active management in these markets is critical, as it allows investors to identify mispricings and capitalize on sector-specific opportunities.

Historical Lessons and Tactical Adjustments

The 2022 market sell-off, which saw both equities and bonds decline simultaneously, underscored the limitations of traditional 60/40 portfolios in high-inflation environments. To address this, investors are increasingly adopting alternative allocations, such as the 40/30/30 model, which incorporates real assets, private equity, and commodities. These strategies aim to reduce volatility and enhance diversification by accessing uncorrelated return streams.

Case studies from the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic recovery further illustrate the value of active credit management. For example, private credit and opportunistic strategies thrived in liquidity-constrained markets, offering higher yields and alpha generation. In 2026, as global dealmaking recovers and private equity activity surges, active security selection in public markets and rigorous underwriting in private credit will be essential for managing risk.

Conclusion: A Pragmatic Approach to Portfolio Construction

Navigating a higher-nominal world requires a shift from passive complacency to active, tactical allocation. Investors must prioritize sectors with inflation-resistant cash flows, such as energy and real estate, while leveraging high-yield credit and alternative assets to enhance returns. As the Fed's rate cuts materialize and inflation moderates, a disciplined approach to risk management and sector rotation will be key to capturing growth while mitigating downside risks.

In this evolving landscape, active portfolio management is not merely a preference-it is a necessity.