Cómo manejar la temporada de ganancias y las señales de inflación: Puntos de entrada estratégicos en 2026

As Q4 2025 earnings season unfolds, investors are increasingly turning to the performance of financial and tech sector bellwethers-JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)-to gauge the trajectory of 2026 market opportunities. With inflationary pressures moderating but still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the interplay between earnings momentum, monetary policy, and sector-specific dynamics is creating a mosaic of undervalued entry points. By dissecting the latest data from these two industries, we can identify tactical shifts for portfolios poised to capitalize on 2026's evolving landscape.

JPMorgan's Earnings and the Financial Sector: A Tale of Resilience

JPMorgan's Q4 2025 earnings, expected to report $4.94 per share and $46.2 billion in revenue, reflect a 3% profit increase and 7% revenue growth year-over-year. This resilience is underpinned by robust performance in fixed income and equity trading, which grew 21% and 33%, respectively in Q3 2025. However, the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cuts in Q4 2025-reducing the federal funds rate to 3.63% by year-end-pose a headwind for net interest margins (NIMs). While lower rates could compress lending margins, JPMorgan's diversified revenue streams and cost discipline position it to outperform peers in a low-rate environment. For investors, this suggests a focus on JPM's capital returns and balance sheet strength, which remain intact despite macroeconomic headwinds.

TSMC's Tech Sector Momentum: AI-Driven Growth and Capex Leverage

TSMC's Q4 2025 results, with revenue of $104.6 billion and a 20.45% year-over-year increase, underscore its dominance in the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) semiconductor market. The company's 2nm production ramp and $40–$42 billion capex budget for 2025 highlight its strategic alignment with AI infrastructure demand. However, analysts caution that rising memory component prices-particularly for HBM, DRAM, and NAND-could dampen smartphone demand and, by extension, TSMC's 2026 revenue. Despite these risks, TSMC's U.S. investment expansion ($165 billion in new facilities) and strong order backlogs among suppliers like Hantang and Yaxiang suggest its growth trajectory remains intact. For investors, TSMC's ability to navigate supply chain bottlenecks while maintaining pricing power in advanced nodes represents a compelling long-term opportunity.

Inflation Data and Policy Implications: A Delicate Balancing Act

Q4 2025 inflation data, with core CPI at 2.76% and core PCE at 2.76%, indicates a moderation from earlier in the year but still leaves the Fed with a challenging mandate. The Philadelphia Fed's SPF forecasts- 3.1% headline CPI for Q4 2025 and 2.8% for 2026-suggest inflation will remain a drag on consumer spending, which is projected to slow to 1.6% in 2026. For the financial sector, this means continued pressure on NIMs but also a potential tailwind for risk assets as rate cuts boost equity valuations. In the tech sector, AI investment is expected to remain a bright spot, with real business spending on intellectual property products growing at 4.4% in 2025. However, overinvestment in AI could lead to a 2027 pullback, creating a window for disciplined investors to enter undervalued positions in 2026.

Strategic Entry Points for 2026: Sector Rotation and Undervalued Opportunities

The confluence of JPMorgan's earnings resilience, TSMC's AI-driven growth, and the Fed's dovish pivot points to a strategic reallocation of capital. In the financial sector, JPM's strong balance sheet and dividend yield ( projected to remain above 2% despite rate cuts) make it a defensive play in a low-rate environment. For the tech sector, TSMC's capex leverage and U.S. manufacturing expansion justify a long-term position, though near-term volatility from memory inflation risks warrants a measured approach. Investors should also consider sector rotation into AI infrastructure suppliers and semiconductor equipment firms, which stand to benefit from TSMC's $40 billion capex plan.

In conclusion, Q4 2025 earnings and inflation data provide a roadmap for 2026 positioning. By leveraging JPMorgan's financial sector stability, TSMC's tech sector momentum, and the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, investors can identify undervalued opportunities while mitigating inflationary risks. The key lies in balancing defensive plays with high-growth bets, ensuring portfolios are both resilient and adaptive to macroeconomic shifts.