Navegando por la corrección de IA: puntos de entrada estratégicos en un mercado resiliente

The financial markets in late 2025 are undergoing a profound realignment, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic shifts and sector-specific recalibrations. As the euphoria surrounding AI-centric growth stocks begins to wane, investors are pivoting toward undervalued sectors poised to benefit from evolving economic dynamics. This article examines how the interplay of central bank policy, inflationary trends, and sector rotation is creating tactical opportunities for investors to capitalize on a maturing market cycle.

The AI Correction and Macroeconomic Catalysts

The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, which dominated market performance for years, are now facing heightened scrutiny as their valuations stretch beyond earnings fundamentals. According to J.P. Morgan Research, the commoditization of AI-exemplified by low-cost Chinese models-is accelerating a rotation away from these overvalued leaders.

Simultaneously, trade policies and tariffs have shifted inflationary pressures toward the U.S., with a 40% probability of a recession in the second half of 2025. These macroeconomic catalysts, coupled with the Federal Reserve's pivot toward rate cuts, are reshaping capital flows.

The Fed's December 2025 rate cut of 25 basis points marked the end of its tightening cycle, with officials projecting one additional cut in 2026. This easing of monetary policy is expected to reduce the discount rate for future earnings, making value stocks-those with stable cash flows and robust balance sheets-more attractive. As BofA Global Research states, the U.S. economy is projected to grow at 2.3% in 2026, supported by AI-driven infrastructure investment and fiscal stimulus.

Sector Rotation: From Growth to Value

The Russell 1000 Value Index has outperformed its growth counterpart, reflecting a broader shift toward sectors like industrials. This rotation is fueled by the elevated interest rate environment, which has dampened the appeal of growth stocks while making value equities more resilient. For instance, the energy sector, with exploration and production names trading 7% below fair value, is gaining traction as OPEC+ production targets and U.S. fiscal improvements signal a potential rebound.

Similarly, the healthcare sector is undervalued despite strong fundamentals, with drug manufacturers and biotech firms offering compelling entry points. Real estate, particularly REITs, is another beneficiary of lower interest rate expectations, as these assets become more sensitive to a declining cost of capital. Meanwhile, the metals & mining sector is poised to outperform due to tariffs on steel and copper, combined with supply constraints at key mines like Grasberg Block Cave according to SSGA.

Strategic Entry Points and Tactical Positioning

Investors seeking to capitalize on these trends must align their strategies with key macroeconomic data releases and Fed policy timelines. For example, the December 2025 rate cut and projected June 2026 cut create windows for entering undervalued sectors. Morningstar data highlights that small-value stocks are trading 26% below fair value, offering a margin of safety for patient investors.

The labor market, with nonfarm payroll gains projected to slow from 125,100 in 2025 to 55,200 in 2026, will remain a critical barometer. A peak in unemployment near 4.6% in early 2026 could signal a turning point for cyclical sectors like industrials and consumer discretionary. Additionally, core PCE inflation is expected to ease to 2.5% by year-end 2026, will likely reinforce the Fed's dovish stance, further supporting value-oriented allocations.

Conclusion: Diversification in a Shifting Landscape

The AI correction is not a market collapse but a recalibration toward a more diversified and resilient economy. By leveraging macroeconomic catalysts-such as Fed rate cuts, inflation moderation, and sector-specific undervaluation-investors can position themselves to benefit from the next phase of the cycle. As Schwab's 2026 outlook notes, the equity bull market is expected to continue, albeit with heightened sector rotation and volatility. A disciplined approach, prioritizing value stocks with strong fundamentals and aligning entry points with central bank policy, will be key to navigating this dynamic environment.