El Grupo Natwest experimentó una caída del 3% debido a la incertidumbre regulatoria y a la debilidad del sector.

Summary
• NatWest Group (NWG) trades at $17.075, down 4.05% from its previous close of $17.78
• Barclays downgrades NWG to 'Equalweight' from 'Overweight', citing valuation concerns
• Share buyback of 848,792 shares executed at 638.20 GBp, yet shares remain pressured
• Technicals show short-term bullish trend but RSI at 71.86 signals overbought conditions

Today’s selloff in NatWest Group has sent shockwaves through the UK banking sector, with the stock hitting an intraday low of $17.06. The move follows a Barclays downgrade and a routine buyback that failed to stabilize sentiment. Traders are now scrutinizing technical indicators and options activity to gauge the next move in a stock that sits at a critical juncture between bearish momentum and potential short-term rebounds.

Barclays Downgrade and Buyback Fuel Volatility
The sharp decline in NatWest Group’s shares is directly tied to Barclays’ downgrade to 'Equalweight' from 'Overweight', as highlighted in the firm’s January 7 note. While the bank cited 'sector-leading shareholder returns' as a long-term positive, it paused its recommendation due to NWG’s undemanding 8x forward PE ratio. Simultaneously, the company’s share buyback of 848,792 shares at 638.20 GBp—part of its ongoing program—failed to offset investor skepticism. The downgrade and buyback activity created a tug-of-war between short-term bearish sentiment and structural support from buybacks, leaving the stock vulnerable to profit-taking and algorithmic selling.

Banks - Regional Sector Under Pressure as JPMorgan Slides 2.2%
The Banks - Regional sector is broadly weak, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) down 2.2% intraday. While NWG’s 4.05% drop outpaces the sector’s average, the selloff reflects broader concerns over regulatory scrutiny and valuation corrections. Regional banks like PNC and Fifth Third are expanding aggressively in the Sun Belt, but NWG’s UK-centric operations face unique challenges, including Brexit-related uncertainties and a competitive fintech landscape. The sector’s underperformance underscores a risk-off environment for financials, with investors favoring cash or defensive plays.

Options and Technicals: Navigating the Volatility
• 200-day average: $14.375 (well below current price)
• 52W range: $9.16–$18.19 (current price at 94% of 52W high)
• RSI: 71.86 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 0.444 (bullish) vs. signal line 0.435
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $18.26, Middle $17.25, Lower $16.23

Technical indicators suggest a mixed picture: while the 52W high remains intact, overbought RSI and a bearish price-to-moving-average spread signal caution. The key support/resistance levels at $16.66–$16.72 (30D) and $13.88–$14.03 (200D) will be critical for near-term direction. With the sector under pressure, leveraged ETFs are absent, but options offer high-leverage opportunities.

Top Options Picks:
• NWG20260220P15 (Put):
- Strike: $15, Expiry: 2026-02-20
- IV: 35.28% (moderate), Delta: -0.133 (moderate bearishness), Theta: -0.0046 (slow decay), Gamma: 0.1016 (responsive to price swings), Turnover: 165
- Why it stands out: This put option offers a 113.77% leverage ratio and is positioned to capitalize on a 5% downside scenario (projected payoff: $2.075). Its moderate delta and high gamma make it ideal for a short-term bearish bet.
• NWG20260220C17.5 (Call):
- Strike: $17.50, Expiry: 2026-02-20
- IV: 32.92% (reasonable), Delta: 0.437 (moderate bullishness), Theta: -0.0090 (moderate decay), Gamma: 0.1990 (high sensitivity), Turnover: 420
- Why it stands out: With a 28.44% leverage ratio and a projected payoff of $0.575 in a 5% downside scenario, this call is well-suited for a volatility play. Its high gamma and moderate delta balance risk and reward.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls may consider NWG20260220C17.5 into a bounce above $17.50, while bears should watch for a breakdown below $16.23 (lower Bollinger Band). If $15.00 support fails, NWG20260220P15 offers asymmetric upside.

Backtest Natwest Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NWG's performance after an intraday plunge of at least -4% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 56.67%, the 10-Day win rate is 58.00%, and the 30-Day win rate is 64.13%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 7.96%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that NWG has a tendency to recover and even exceed its pre-plunge levels in the following days.

Act Now: Position for a Volatile Week Ahead
The selloff in NatWest Group reflects a confluence of bearish sentiment from Barclays and structural uncertainty around buybacks. While technicals hint at a potential rebound above $17.25, the overbought RSI and weak 200-day average suggest caution. Investors should monitor the $16.23 support level and the $18.26 resistance for directional clues. With JPMorgan (JPM) down 2.2%, the broader sector remains vulnerable to macroeconomic headwinds. Act now: Buy NWG20260220P15 for bearish exposure or NWG20260220C17.5 for a volatility play, but exit if $17.00 fails to hold.