Natera Drops 3.05% As Bearish Signals Converge At Key $167.50 Support

Natera (NTRA) declined 3.05% during the most recent session (2025-09-12), closing at $168.51 after trading between $167.59 and $172.64 on moderate volume of 852,915 shares. This downturn follows a 2.37% gain the previous day but extends the corrective phase from the $176.82 peak observed on 2025-09-10.
Candlestick Theory
The price action reveals significant volatility, marked by a bullish engulfing pattern on 2025-09-09 (open $167.35, close $176.37) that failed to sustain momentum. This was immediately invalidated by a bearish engulfing candle on 2025-09-10 (open $176.56, close $169.79), signaling strong selling pressure near $177. Key support is established at $167.50, tested three times over the past week, including the latest session’s low. Resistance now converges near $172.65, aligning with recent upper wicks and the 2025-09-12 high. A decisive close below $167.50 may trigger extended declines.
Moving Average Theory
Natera’s 50-day moving average (~$161) and 200-day moving average (~$149) maintain bullish sequencing (50 > 200), confirming the longer-term uptrend. However, the price recently crossed below the 20-day EMA (~$171), suggesting short-term bearish pressure. The 50-day MA may offer dynamic support near $161.50. Continued trading below the 20-day EMA reinforces near-term distribution.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26) shows a bearish crossover emerging in late August and is now accelerating below its signal line, with the histogram deepening into negative territory. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator (14,3,3) reflects weakening momentum: The %K line (35) crossed below %D (43) after failing to breach the overbought threshold (80) in early September. Both indicators align in signaling deteriorating bullish momentum and potential further downside, though %J’s approach toward oversold territory (20) warrants monitoring for short-term rebounds.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-period, 2σ) contracted sharply during the August rally, indicating reduced volatility before the breakout to $176.82. The subsequent rejection from the upper band triggered a contraction phase, with the price breaking below the 20-day midline (~$170) and now testing the lower band near $167.50. This compression often precedes directional volatility. A sustained break below the lower band would confirm bearish continuation targeting $164–$162.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis reveals distribution: The recent pullback (2025-09-10 and 2025-09-12) saw elevated volume (1.29M and 853k shares) compared to the preceding rally’s volume (697k on 2025-09-11). This divergence suggests weak buying conviction near $174–$176. The lack of significant volume during the most recent dip to $167.59 may indicate capitulation is incomplete. Sustained downside requires validation via expanding volume.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has declined from overbought territory (71.5 on 2025-09-09) to 41.2, reflecting waning bullish momentum. While not yet oversold (<30), the current reading implies room for further downside. However, RSI’s failure to breach 75 during early September’s rally signaled latent weakness—a warning now materializing. Traders should note that RSI can remain neutral during strong trends; a breach below 40 would strengthen bearish implications.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the swing low of $151.95 (2025-08-08) and the high of $176.82 (2025-09-10), key retracement zones emerge. The price has breached the 23.6% level ($171.50) and is testing the 38.2% retracement ($167.50). Confluence at this support is evident through multiple tests. A breakdown here targets the 50% level ($164.38), closely aligning with the 50-day MA. The 61.8% level ($161.76) represents a critical bull/bear demarcation zone.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence is strongest at $167.50–$167.60, where Bollinger’s lower band, the 38.2% Fibonacci level, and psychological/horizontal support converge. A decisive close below this area would align bearishly with MACD, KDJ, and volume signals. Divergence appears between price action and RSI/KDJ oversold thresholds—while not yet extreme, these oscillators suggest limited immediate downside momentum. Longer-term MA sequencing remains bullish, contrasting with near-term EMA breakdowns, indicating potential volatility compression.