¿Está el Nasdaq Composite entrando en una corrección de corto plazo debido a la debilidad técnica y la venta de acciones tecnológicas?

The Nasdaq Composite, long a barometer of speculative fervor in the technology sector, has shown signs of vulnerability in November 2025. A confluence of technical indicators and shifting investor sentiment suggests the index may be navigating a short-term correction, driven by profit-taking in AI-driven stocks and macroeconomic uncertainties. However, the interplay between bearish signals and pockets of resilience-particularly in earnings performance-complicates the outlook.

Technical Weakness: A Bearish Tapestry

From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq Composite faces a critical juncture. The index's 14-day RSI of 36.413, coupled with a "Strong Sell" signal from its moving averages (MA5 to MA200), underscores near-term bearish momentum. The 50-day moving average (25,165.83) has provided temporary support, with the price currently trading slightly above it (see below). Yet, this respite is fragile: a break below $25,000 would trigger a cascade of bearish targets, including $24,961 and $24,822.

Resistance levels in the 25,150–25,350 range have historically acted as a psychological ceiling, and failure to breach this zone could trap the index in a 24,500–25,350 trading range for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 futures, though hovering near bullish thresholds, remain constrained by broader market skepticism as indicated in technical analysis. This duality-local optimism versus systemic fragility-reflects the index's precarious balance between technical exhaustion and fleeting catalysts.

Sentiment Shifts: Fear, Rotation, and Contrarian Hopes

Market sentiment has swung sharply in November, marked by a 4.3% decline in the Nasdaq Composite-the steepest drop in eight months. This selloff, concentrated in AI stocks like Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla, reflects growing unease about stretched valuations and the sustainability of the AI boom. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged to an intra-day high of 52.87 on November 18, a level last seen during periods of acute market stress. Such volatility, paired with the CNN Business Fear & Greed Index's "extreme fear" reading of 21, signals a pronounced flight to safety, with investors favoring bonds, gold, and defensive equities over high-growth tech names.

Yet, late-month optimism emerged as Nvidia's blowout earnings report-highlighting $500 billion in AI chip demand through 2026-temporarily stabilized sentiment. This "buy the dip" dynamic, however, remains contingent on macroeconomic clarity. Rising bond yields and Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations continue to weigh on tech stocks, which are sensitive to discounting long-term cash flows.

The Path Forward: Correction or Rebalancing?

The Nasdaq Composite's trajectory hinges on three factors:
1. Technical Resilience: Holding above $25,000 is critical to avoid a deeper correction. A sustained breakout above 25,150 could reignite bullish momentum, but failure to do so may prolong range-bound trading.
2. Sentiment Rebalancing: While extreme fear often creates contrarian opportunities, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey's 42.7% bearish reading suggests caution. A shift in leadership to defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples indicates a broader rotation, not merely a tech selloff as detailed in market commentary.
3. Macro Drivers: The VIX's retreat to 16.23 by late November hints at stabilizing risk appetite, but lingering geopolitical tensions and valuation concerns could reignite volatility.

For now, the Nasdaq appears to be in a corrective phase rather than a structural downturn. The index's technical underpinnings remain fragile, yet pockets of strength-particularly in AI innovation-suggest a floor to the decline. Investors must weigh the risks of overcorrecting against the potential for a rebound, mindful that the market's next move will likely hinge on earnings resilience and macroeconomic clarity.