Nasdaq 100 Elliott Wave Analysis: Is the 26700 Target Still Valid Amid Shifting Market Dynamics?

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has long been a barometer of speculative and technological momentum, and its current Elliott Wave trajectory remains a focal point for traders and investors. As of November 2025, the index has navigated a complex wave structure, with the 26700 target still in view despite recent volatility. This analysis examines the interplay of technical momentum indicators, risk management strategies, and multi-wave Elliott Wave dynamics to assess the validity of the 26700 level.

Technical Momentum: Divergences and Corrections

The NDX's recent price action has shown resilience, with a low of 23,854 on November 21, 2025, followed by a recovery above the critical 24,000 threshold. While this supports a bullish continuation, technical indicators like the MACD and stochastic oscillator have generated sell signals, suggesting an intermediate-term correction is underway. These signals align with a broader Elliott Wave ABC corrective pattern, where the current pullback could represent a B-wave within a larger corrective structure.

Positive divergences in momentum indicators, however, hint at weakening downside pressure. For instance, the RSI has shown higher lows despite lower price lows, indicating potential exhaustion in the bearish move. This divergence reinforces the idea that the index remains in a multi-wave uptrend, with minor wave four (W-4) still in progress. The 50-day moving average has emerged as a pivotal support level, and its defense is critical for maintaining the bullish bias.

Risk Management: Key Levels and Strategic Hedging

Risk management is paramount in a market environment marked by macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical fragility. Analysts emphasize monitoring the 25,300–25,500 support zone, as a breakdown below this range could trigger a deeper correction. Conversely, a sustained close above 26,000 would signal renewed buying control and open the path to 26,700.

Position sizing and diversification are also critical. High-beta tech stocks have shown valuation concerns, particularly in AI-related names like Nvidia and Palantir. Traders are advised to reduce exposure during overbought conditions and hedge with inverse ETFs or stop-loss orders to mitigate downside risks. Additionally, liquidity conditions and volatility metrics remain key watchpoints, as shifts in these indicators could amplify market swings.

Elliott Wave Validity: Multi-Wave Structure and Target Projections

The Elliott Wave analysis suggests the NDX is still in a five-wave impulse structure, with the final 5th wave (green W-5) expected to target 26700. As of November 2025, the index is estimated to be in minor wave four, with the gray W-v target zone at 26500 ± 250. This aligns with the larger black W-3 projection of 26700, assuming corrective waves resolve cleanly.

Shorter-term wave counts add nuance. The orange W-3 wave could peak at the 161.80% extension (~26635), followed by a pullback to 25300 ± 100 during orange W-4. A final W-5 wave might then complete the gray W-iii at approximately 25900 ± 100. While this scenario falls short of 26700, it underscores the importance of wave resolution in determining the index's trajectory.

Balancing Optimism and Caution

The 26700 target remains valid under the assumption that the NDX maintains its structural integrity above key support levels. However, shifting market dynamics introduce uncertainty, including the Federal Reserve's rate-cut expectations. A breakdown below 24,525 or a sharp rejection at 25,284 could invalidate the bullish case, necessitating a reassessment of wave counts.

Investors should also consider macroeconomic catalysts, including the December PCE inflation data and the Fed's policy stance, which could influence liquidity conditions and risk appetite. While the long-term uptrend is intact, prudence is warranted given the fragile nature of the current environment.

Conclusion

The Nasdaq 100's Elliott Wave analysis presents a compelling case for the 26700 target, supported by technical momentum divergences and multi-wave projections. However, the path to this level is contingent on maintaining key support levels and managing risks through strategic hedging and position adjustments. As the index navigates its final rally, a disciplined approach to both technical analysis and risk management will be essential for capitalizing on the opportunity while mitigating potential setbacks.