MYX Finance: Is This a Genuine Recovery or Another Manipulated Pump?

The recent surge in MYX Finance (MYX) has captivated investors, with the token's price soaring over 681.73% in 30 days and a 10.42% jump in 24 hours as of Q4 2025. However, beneath the surface of this volatility lies a critical question: Is this a sustainable recovery driven by organic demand, or is it a manipulated pump fueled by coordinated airdrop farming and whale activity? To answer this, we dissect MYX's technical and on-chain metrics, evaluating whether the rally aligns with fundamental value or exposes structural risks.

Technical Analysis: Momentum vs. Overvaluation

MYX's technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The 14-day RSI of 58.488 suggests the asset is in "Buy" territory, while the MACD and moving averages reinforce bullish momentum. A 1,156.53% 7-day price surge has pushed the token into overbought territory, raising concerns about a potential correction. Yet, the RSI's position below 70-a threshold for overbought conditions-indicates the rally may not yet be unsustainable.

However, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio tells a different story. As of September 2025, MYX's NVT stood at 1,041, a level typically associated with overvaluation relative to on-chain transaction activity. This suggests the token's market cap is outpacing its utility, a red flag for speculative bubbles. By November 2025, despite an 85% price rebound, the NVT remains uncalculated, leaving a critical gap in assessing whether the rally is backed by real usage or speculative fervor.

On-Chain Metrics: Whale Activity and Exchange Flows

On-chain data reveals a tug-of-war between retail and institutional forces. Whale wallets holding over $1 million in MYX increased by 17.44% in September 2025, coinciding with a nearly 1,000% price surge. This accumulation by large holders suggests confidence in the token's long-term potential. However, by mid-December 2025, whale activity slowed significantly, aligning with an 11% price drop and liquidity outflows. This divergence between whale behavior and price action hints at potential manipulation, as large players may be exiting while retail investors chase momentum.

Exchange inflows further complicate the narrative. In Q4 2025, MYX's 24-hour trading volume surged 115.27% to $89.48 million, driven by a $2.01 million influx of small orders. This retail-driven buying contrasts with the bearish shift in whale activity, creating a fragile equilibrium. Meanwhile, open interest in MYX futures hit $45.63 million, with 64% of traders betting on higher prices. While this indicates strong speculative demand, it also amplifies the risk of a short squeeze or abrupt reversal if sentiment shifts.

The Role of Market Structure and Upgrades

MYX's ecosystem is further shaped by structural factors. The token's derivatives market has become a key driver, with perpetual traders adopting a bearish tilt in late 2025. This contrasts with the bullish retail inflows, suggesting a disconnect between spot and futures markets. Additionally, the anticipated V2 upgrade-promising cross-chain improvements and portfolio margin features-has injected optimism. If successful, these upgrades could justify the current valuation by enhancing utility. However, until the upgrade is implemented, the rally remains speculative.

Conclusion: A Cautionary Bull Case

MYX Finance's recent rally is underpinned by strong technical momentum and retail enthusiasm, but on-chain data exposes structural vulnerabilities. The surge in whale accumulation and exchange inflows points to genuine interest, yet the NVT ratio's overvaluation and whale exit signals raise red flags about manipulation. While the V2 upgrade offers a potential catalyst for sustainable growth, investors must remain cautious. The token's price remains nearly 80% below its September peak, and the absence of updated NVT metrics leaves valuation sustainability in question.

For now, MYX appears to be a hybrid of organic demand and speculative hype. Traders should monitor whale activity and NVT trends closely, while long-term investors may find value in the V2 upgrade's potential to justify the current rally. Until then, the line between recovery and manipulation remains perilously thin.