Murphy USA's Q4 2024: Navigating Contradictions in Store Performance, Non-Nicotine Growth, and Margin Pressures

These are the key contradictions discussed in Murphy USA's latest 2024Q4 earnings call, specifically including: Store Performance and Traffic-Driving Categories, Promotional Activities and Market Conditions, Non-Nicotine Category Performance, and Gross Margin Expectations:



Financial Performance and Guidance:
- Murphy USA delivered just over $1 billion of EBITDA in 2024.
- For 2025, the company is expecting EBITDA of $1 billion to $1.12 billion with an all-in margin range of $0.305 to $0.325 per gallon.
- The outlook is driven by sustained earnings potential, new store growth, and share repurchase strategies.

Store Growth and Construction:
- Murphy USA completed 32 new to industry stores in 2024 and plans to open up to 50 new stores in 2025.
- The company also completed 47 raze-and-rebuild projects in 2024, with plans to reduce this number to no more than 30 projects in 2025.
- The focus remains on adding more productive larger format stores to enhance the network's performance.

Fuel Volume Trends:
- Average 2024 fuel volumes were 240,600 gallons per store month, with Q4 volumes down 2.4%.
- For 2025, Murphy USA expects to sell just over 5 billion gallons of fuel, up 4.5% from 2024.
- The company's strategy includes capturing market share through new store openings and productivity improvements.

Merchandise Contribution:
- Merchandise contribution dollars increased to $834 million in 2024, up 3.8% year-over-year.
- For 2025, Murphy USA forecasts merchandise contribution improvement, with a range of $855 million to $875 million, representing nearly 4% growth.
- The growth is supported by strong performance in non-nicotine margin contributions and continued strength at Murphy USA stores.