Mubarak/Tether Market Overview

• Price fell from 0.03071 to 0.02958 over 24 hours, forming bearish momentum.
• Key support near 0.02885 and resistance at 0.02945 marked key turning points.
• Volume increased during sharp declines but failed to confirm a strong bearish breakout.
• MACD showed bearish divergence, RSI signaled oversold conditions near 30.
• Volatility expanded in early ET hours but stabilized as the day progressed.

The Mubarak/Tether (MUBARAKUSDT) pair opened at 0.03041 on 2025-09-25 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.02958 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.03073 and low of 0.02841. Total traded volume reached 59,687,535.5 USDT, with a notional turnover of $1,769,173. The pair experienced a bearish continuation with several key resistance levels tested and failed.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish continuation pattern over the 24-hour period, with a key support at 0.02885 and resistance near 0.02945. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 03:45 ET, confirming the continuation of the downward trend. A doji formed near 0.0293 at 17:15 ET, indicating indecision and a potential short-term reversal, which did not materialize. The price failed to break above 0.02955, which acted as a psychological ceiling.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in a bearish alignment, with the 20 MA below the 50 MA, reinforcing the downward bias. For daily charts, the 50, 100, and 200 MA all suggest a bearish trend, with the 200 MA acting as a strong long-term support at approximately 0.02885–0.02890.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained bearish, with the histogram showing consistent negative readings and the signal line below the zero line. RSI reached oversold levels (near 30) during the early morning ET hours, signaling potential short-term buying pressure. However, price failed to rebound meaningfully, suggesting weak conviction behind any bearish exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early hours of the morning as the price moved below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a high-risk environment. The contraction phase was short-lived, and the price remained below the 20-period moving average for most of the session, suggesting continued bearish pressure. The bands were wide, with the price fluctuating in the lower half, indicating a consolidation phase on the downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during price declines, especially during the sharp drop from 0.03073 to 0.02903. However, during the rally back toward 0.02955, volume was relatively muted, suggesting a lack of conviction. Notional turnover peaked during the 19:00–20:00 ET period as price moved toward support. Divergences were observed between price and volume during the late ET hours, with price making higher lows but volume declining.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were key in identifying potential turning points. The 61.8% retracement level at 0.02945 was a significant resistance level, and the 38.2% level at 0.02903 acted as a critical support. The price tested these levels multiple times, with a bearish bias prevailing after each retest. The 78.6% level at 0.02870 could become a key area to watch in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed bearish continuation and key support/resistance levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short position triggered on a break of the 0.02945 level with a stop-loss placed above 0.02965. A target of 0.02915 aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 20-period moving average. Given the volume dynamics and MACD divergence, this strategy could be tested on a rolling 15-minute chart, using a trailing stop to manage downside risk if the trend accelerates. The oversold RSI condition suggests that any reversal attempt would likely fail, making this a low-risk, high-probability short-term bearish setup.