MSTR Plummets 5.3% Amid Bitcoin Downturn: Is This the Bottom?

Summary
• Strategy (MSTR) tumbles 5.3% intraday to $176.56, its lowest since hitting $173.01
• Bitcoin’s retreat below $90k triggers panic selling, with Saylor’s $830M BTC buyout failing to stabilize shares
• mNAV drops below 1, signaling existential risk as S&P 500 inclusion hopes hang in balance

Strategy’s stock is in freefall as Bitcoin’s collapse triggers a cascading sell-off. With the company’s market cap now trading below its Bitcoin holdings’ value, the market is testing the limits of Saylor’s “indestructible” thesis. This 5.3% drop—amid a 52-week low of $173.01—has created a critical inflection point for a stock that’s lost 37% year-to-date.

Bitcoin’s Slide Sparks MSTR Volatility
The 5.3% intraday plunge in Strategy’s shares is directly tied to Bitcoin’s retreat below $90,000—a level that has historically acted as a psychological floor. The company’s recent $830 million Bitcoin purchase, announced as the stock rebounded from a multi-month low, failed to reassure investors. Instead, the mNAV (market-to-nav ratio) dropping below 1—a first for the company—has amplified fears that the stock’s premium to Bitcoin’s intrinsic value is collapsing. This metric, which compares the company’s market cap to the total value of its Bitcoin holdings, now signals that investors are pricing in a permanent impairment of Strategy’s treasury strategy.

Bearish Options Playbook: Capitalizing on MSTR’s Breakdown
• RSI: 26.7 (oversold)
• MACD: -28.25 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $176.56 (near lower band of $177.76)
• 200D MA: $338.10 (far above current price)

The technical picture is dire. With RSI in oversold territory and MACD in a steep bearish trend, the stock is testing critical support levels. The Bollinger Bands suggest a potential rebound near $177.76, but the 200-day moving average remains a distant $161.95 away. For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• MSTR20251128P180
- Put Option, Strike: $180, Expiry: 2025-11-28
- IV: 87.13% (high volatility)
- LVR: 14.71% (moderate leverage)
- Delta: -0.541663 (sensitive to price drops)
- Theta: -0.038293 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.016514 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: $3.025M (liquid)
- Payoff: At 5% downside ($167.73), intrinsic value = $12.27 per contract
- Why: High IV and moderate leverage make this ideal for a short-term bearish bet with manageable time decay.

• MSTR20251128P175
- Put Option, Strike: $175, Expiry: 2025-11-28
- IV: 88.45% (elevated)
- LVR: 17.39% (strong leverage)
- Delta: -0.459464 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.927048 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.016272 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: $779K (liquid)
- Payoff: At 5% downside ($167.73), intrinsic value = $7.77 per contract
- Why: Combines high leverage with elevated IV, offering outsized returns if the price breaks below $175.

If $173.01 support fails, MSTR20251128P180 becomes a must-watch for short-side momentum.

Backtest Strategy Stock Performance
I’m sorry — my first attempt to fetch MicroStrategy’s daily price data ran into a technical problem on the data-retrieval side. To run an event back-test on “–5 % intraday plunge” days from 2022-01-01 to today, we need daily OHLC (open, high, low, close) prices for MSTR.O so we can identify every session whose intraday low fell at least 5 % below the prior-day close.To move forward, please let me know how you’d like to proceed:1. Retry the data-pull now (I’ll switch to an alternate query specification that should avoid the earlier error); or 2. If you already have the OHLC data or the exact list of –5 % plunge dates, you can provide/upload it and I’ll jump straight to the event back-test; or 3. If you have another preference (e.g., a different drop threshold or period), tell me and I’ll adjust accordingly.Just let me know which option you prefer, and we’ll continue right away.

Bottom Fishing or Bust: MSTR at Crossroads
The 5.3% drop has exposed Strategy’s existential vulnerability—its mNAV below 1 and Bitcoin’s $90k level both represent critical thresholds. While Saylor’s “indestructible” thesis remains untested in a prolonged bear market, the technical indicators suggest further downside. Investors should monitor the 200D MA at $338.10 and IBM’s 1.61% intraday gain as sector sentiment barometers. For now, the MSTR20251128P180 put offers a high-conviction play if the stock breaks below $173.01. This is a high-risk, high-reward scenario—brace for volatility.