La señal de opciones de MSFT indica un sesgo alcista: apuesta a que la cotización alcanzará $500 mientras el crecimiento de IA genera un incremento a corto plazo

• Microsoft’s Q3 earnings beat by $0.48 (13% surplus) and $77.67B revenue (18.4% YoY growth) reinforced its AI/cloud momentum.
• Options market favors calls: Put/Call OI ratio at 0.7, with $500C and $505C strikes dominating this Friday’s open interest.
• Block trades hint at strategic positioning: A $300K put block at MSFT20251031P510 and 600-share put sale at MSFT20250926P490 suggest mixed hedging activity.

Here’s the takeaway: Microsoft’s stock sits in a short-term bullish trend with options data pointing to a potential push toward $500. The key question is whether AI-driven fundamentals and institutional confidence can overcome near-term profit-taking by insiders and competitive AI threats.Bullish Sentiment in Options, But Watch the Puts

Let’s start with the options chain—it’s telling a story. This Friday’s top OTM calls are clustered between $490 and $505, with the $500C strike leading at 5,047 open contracts. That’s not random. Traders are pricing in a 2.6% upside move (from current $487.56) ahead of the January expiration. The put side is quieter but not negligible: $470P and $460P strikes have 2,910 and 2,891 OI, respectively. The imbalance? Calls dominate by 42% in open interest, which usually precedes a bullish breakout—or a rally attempt.

But don’t ignore the block trades. The MSFT20251031P510 put (strike $510) saw a $300K block trade last month, hinting at institutional hedging ahead of earnings. Meanwhile, a 600-share put sale at $490 (MSFT20250926P490) suggests some players are betting on a dip. The takeaway? A tug-of-war between bulls targeting $500+ and cautious bears hedging against a pullback to $470.

News Flow: AI Wins Outweigh Near-Term Risks

Microsoft’s recent headlines are a mixed bag, but the AI angle is hard to ignore. Dynamics 365’s 21% growth and Copilot’s 30% productivity boost in customer service are real tailwinds. Analysts aren’t shy either—UBS and Wedbush raised $650 and $625 targets, with a consensus of $631.03. That’s a 30% upside from current levels.

The clouds? NVIDIA’s $20B Groq buyout could pressure Azure’s AI margins, and insiders sold $27.6M worth of shares recently. But here’s the catch: Institutional investors own 71% of MSFT and just added 410% more holdings in Q1 2026. That kind of commitment usually smooths out short-term volatility.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bold, Bollinger for the Cautious

Let’s get specific. For options traders, the MSFT20260102C500 call (strike $500, expiring Jan 2) is a prime candidate. With the stock trading just $12.44 below the strike and RSI at 54.38 (neutral territory), a break above the upper Bollinger Band ($494.97) could trigger a rally. If you’re bullish on AI’s role in Q1 2026, this strike offers leverage without extreme risk.

For stock players, consider entry near $478.21 (30D support level). If the price holds here, target $490–$500 as a first profit zone. The 200D MA at $476.08 adds a psychological floor. On the cautious side, watch the $484.18 intraday low; a break below that could trigger a test of the $472.91 lower Bollinger Band.

Volatility on the Horizon: Position for January

Microsoft’s options market is already pricing in a volatile January. The next Friday’s top calls ($510C, $500C) and puts ($465P, $470P) show traders are bracing for a wider range. Combine that with NVIDIA’s AI moves and Microsoft’s own dividend payout in March, and 2026 looks like a pivotal year.

Bottom line: The data leans bullish, but don’t chase. Wait for a confirmed breakout above $488.35 (intraday high) or a rebound off $478 support. Either way, Microsoft’s AI story—and its $631 analyst target—is too big to ignore.