MSFT Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to Strategic Entry Zones

• Current price: $478.58, down 0.15% from yesterday’s close
• Put/Call OI ratio: 0.696 (calls dominate, especially at $520 strike)
• Block trade: 250 June 2026 puts at $500 suggest hedging ahead

Here’s the thing: Microsoft’s options market is whispering bullishness, even as technicals hint at short-term jitters. The data paints a picture of traders betting on a rebound above $480 while hedging against a drop below $470. Let’s break it down.

Bullish OI Clusters and Hidden Risks in the Striking Zones

The options chain is packed with call open interest at $520 (33,620 contracts) and $510 (19,446), with next-week’s volume skewed lower at $510 (7,384). That’s not just noise—it’s a vote of confidence for a potential $40+ pop. But here’s the catch: the RSI at 44 and MACD crossing below the signal line (-2.89 vs -3.09) warn of near-term weakness.

On the put side, $450 (19,728 OI) and $470 (12,878) are key resistance zones. The block trade—MSFT20260618P500 with $1.025M turnover—hints someone’s bracing for a mid-year dip. Think of it as a weather vane: the market’s leaning bullish, but the June puts are an umbrella in case of storms.

News That Could Tip the Scales: AI Commerce vs Institutional Selling

Microsoft’s Copilot Checkout rollout with PayPal and Shopify is a big deal. Analysts are split on valuation—$420 fair value vs $602 DCF—but the AI-driven commerce angle could juice Azure usage. That said, Leibman Financial’s 51% stake reduction in Q3 ($1.57M worth) adds short-term friction.

The Motley Fool’s long-term bullish take (14% annualized growth through 2030) lines up with the call-heavy OI. But here’s the rub: institutional investors own 71% of MSFT. If big players keep trimming, the stock could face downward pressure before AI hype kicks in.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

For options traders:

• Bullish play: Buy MSFT20260116C520 (this Friday’s $520 call). If MSFT breaks above $481.50 (middle Bollinger band), these calls could gain steam.
• Bearish hedge: Buy MSFT20260116P450 (this Friday’s $450 put) if price dips below $475.68 (intraday low).

For stock buyers:

• Entry near $478.22 (30D support) with a target at $481.50 (middle band).
• Stop-loss below $475.68 to protect against a breakdown.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Optimism and Near-Term Jitters

The next 48 hours will test MSFT’s resolve. If it holds above $475, the 200D MA at $480.22 becomes a psychological hurdle. Break that, and the $470–$475 support corridor (200D support) looms. But if Copilot Checkout news gains traction, the $490–$500 range (current call OI sweet spot) could ignite.

Bottom line: This is a stock caught between AI-driven optimism and short-term profit-taking. The options market’s bullish bias suggests a rebound is priced in—but don’t ignore the RSI’s 44 reading. Play it like a chess game: long-term calls for patience, short-term puts for protection. Either way, MSFT’s dance with $480 is about to get interesting.