MP Materials Surges 4.9% Amid Rare Earth Rally – What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• MP Materials (MP) trades at $66.65, up 4.94% from $63.51
• Intraday range spans $64.88 to $67.34, with 450,887 shares traded
• 52-week high of $82.50 remains distant, but short-term bullish momentum builds

MP Materials is surging on Friday afternoon as rare earth demand speculation collides with technical indicators. With the stock trading near its 30-day moving average of $68.81 and RSI at 40.73, the move reflects a mix of strategic positioning and sector-specific catalysts. Traders are parsing the options chain for clues as the stock tests key levels ahead of its 52-week high.

Rare Earth Demand and Strategic Supply Chain Moves Drive Volatility
MP Materials’ 4.94% intraday gain stems from renewed focus on rare earth supply chains amid global decarbonization efforts. The company’s Mountain Pass mine remains the only U.S. rare earth producer, positioning it to benefit from policy-driven demand in EVs, wind turbines, and defense tech. Recent financials show a 148.37% year-over-year cash flow surge, while the stock’s 200-day average of $33.24 underscores long-term bullish potential. Short-term momentum is amplified by a -1.37 MACD histogram and RSI at 40.73, suggesting oversold conditions are triggering a rebound.

Industrial Metals Sector Quiet as MP Outperforms
Options Playbook: Capitalizing on MP’s Volatility and ETF Gaps
• 30D MA: $68.81 (above) • 200D MA: $33.24 (well below) • RSI: 40.73 (oversold) • MACD: -0.29 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 59.62–75.82

MP’s price action suggests a short-term bounce off the 200D MA, with key resistance at the 30D MA of $68.81 and Bollinger middle band at $67.72. The stock’s -125.53 P/E ratio and -0.29 MACD signal long-term value but short-term caution. With no leveraged ETFs available, options remain the primary vehicle for exposure.

Top Options:
• MP20250919C65 (Call): Strike $65, Expiry 9/19, IV 70.04%, Leverage 24.70%, Delta 0.589, Theta -0.504, Gamma 0.0719, Turnover $882K
- High liquidity and moderate delta make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target $69.98). Payoff: $4.98/share.
• MP20250919C67 (Call): Strike $67, Expiry 9/19, IV 73.17%, Leverage 36.64%, Delta 0.446, Theta -0.448, Gamma 0.0699, Turnover $241K
- Strong gamma and IV suggest sensitivity to price swings. Payoff under 5% move: $2.64/share.

Aggressive bulls should target MP20250919C65 into a break above $67.72. If $68.81 holds, consider rolling into the 9/26 $64 call for extended exposure.

Backtest MP Materials Stock Performance
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MP at Pivotal Juncture – Act on 67.72 Breakout or 63.00 Support
MP’s 4.94% rally reflects a critical inflection point between short-term oversold conditions and long-term bullish fundamentals. The stock must clear $67.72 (Bollinger middle band) to validate the rebound, with $68.81 (30D MA) as the next target. Failure to hold $63.00 (30D support) could trigger a retest of the 200D MA at $33.24. Sector leader Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) remains flat at +0.09%, signaling MP’s move is stock-specific. Watch for a $67.72 breakout or 63.00 breakdown to dictate next steps.