MP Materials Soars 21%—What’s Driving the Rare Earth Rally?

• MP Materials (MP) surged 21.6% to $59.0034, hitting a 52-week high of $62.87 after announcing a $500M Apple partnership.
• The deal secures long-term rare earth magnet supply for Apple, leveraging MP’s Texas and California facilities.
• Dynamic PE ratio of -106.4% suggests aggressive valuation shifts amid strategic news.

MP’s explosive intraday move positions it as a rare earth catalyst, fueled by a landmark Apple collaboration and domestic manufacturing momentum. The stock’s 2025 rally now spans over 200% YTD, with today’s range between $52.90 and $62.87 amplifying investor optimism.

Apple’s $500M Commitment Sparks Rare Earth Revolution
The surge is directly tied to MP’s definitive agreement with Apple to supply 100% recycled rare earth magnets for U.S.-manufactured devices. This partnership cements MP’s role as a critical supplier for Apple’s circular supply chain strategy, leveraging its Mountain Pass recycling infrastructure and Fort Worth magnet production. The deal’s $500M scale and 2027 delivery timeline underscore strategic bets on domestic rare earth resilience, a priority for U.S. tech and defense industries. The news eclipsed broader sector headwinds, such as China’s export dynamics and geopolitical supply risks, positioning MP as a rare earth decarbonization leader.

Bullish Momentum Calls: Capturing Rare Earth’s Next Leg
• Technicals: RSI 69.8 (overbought warning), 200-day avg $22.88 (well below current price). Bollinger Bands show price above upper bound ($45.94), signaling strong upside bias.
• MACD 3.84 vs Signal 2.68: Bullish crossover confirms trend continuation.

Focus on MP20250725C59 and MP20250725C60 calls:
- MP20250725C59 (strike $59, exp 7/25):
• Delta 0.527 (moderate bullish exposure), Gamma 0.048 (sensitive to price swings), Theta -0.262 (time decay penalty).
• Leverage 17.85%, IV 81.1%: Premium pricing reflects high demand for this in-the-money strike.
• Payoff at $62 ST: $3.00 intrinsic value yields 503% return vs current price.
- MP20250725C60 (strike $60, exp 7/25):
• Delta 0.479 (balanced risk/reward), Gamma 0.0485 (price sensitivity), Theta -0.251 (manageable decay).
• Leverage 20.89%, IV 80.3%: High turnover ($1.15M) ensures liquidity.
• Payoff at $62 ST: $2.00 gain offers 589% return.

Aggressive bulls should layer positions in these calls, targeting a $65+ breakout. Monitor the $55–$57 support zone—failure could trigger profit-taking. Bullish Hook: “MP20250725C59 shines as the sweet spot for $60+ rallies; pair with bearish FCX puts to hedge sector volatility.”

Backtest MP Materials Stock Performance
The backtest of Mosaic Programming (MP) performance after a 22% intraday surge shows mixed results, with varying win rates and returns over different time frames:1. Short-Term Performance: The 3-day win rate is 47.40%, indicating that approximately half of the time, the stock price increases within 3 days of the surge. The average return over 3 days is 0.18%.2. Medium-Term Performance: The 10-day win rate is 50.00%, suggesting a higher probability of positive returns compared to the 3-day win rate. The average return over 10 days is also 0.18%.3. Long-Term Performance: The 30-day win rate is 48.96%, which is slightly lower than the 10-day win rate. The average return over 30 days is 0.29%, with a maximum return of 0.59% on day 45.In conclusion, while there is a higher probability of positive returns in the short to medium term after a 22% intraday surge in MP, the overall returns are relatively modest, with the highest return being 0.59% over 30 days. This suggests that while there is potential for gains, investors should have reasonable expectations and consider other factors before making investment decisions.

MP’s Rare Earth Momentum: A Long-Term Play or a Short-Term Sizzle?
MP’s surge hinges on execution of its Apple partnership and rare earth recycling milestones. While the stock’s technicals scream overbought, the strategic narrative could sustain momentum amid U.S. supply chain renaissance themes. Watch for Q3 2025 updates on Mountain Pass’s recycling line progress—delays could reverse sentiment. Competitor Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)’s -3.7% dip highlights sector divergence, but MP’s niche positioning in tech magnets may insulate it from broader commodity cycles. Final Call: “Hold calls above $57; break below $55 triggers $50 retracement. U.S. rare earth dominance is the next frontier—MP is leading the charge.”