Is The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) Potentially Undervalued?

The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS), a leading global producer of crop nutrients, has been a subject of interest among investors due to its recent performance and valuation. With a current share price of US$26.46, the question arises: is Mosaic potentially undervalued? To answer this, we'll delve into the company's financials, valuation methods, and market sentiment.



Mosaic's recent financial performance has been robust, with a projected free cash flow (FCF) of US$784.7 million in 2025. The company's FCF is expected to grow at varying rates over the next decade, with analyst estimates ranging from 0.83% to 2.32%. Simply Wall St has also estimated growth rates for some years where analyst estimates were not available. For instance, the growth rate for 2026 is estimated at -1.02%.



Using the two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model, we can estimate Mosaic's intrinsic value. The first stage considers a higher growth period, while the second stage captures the steady growth period. The present value of the 10-year cash flow (PVCF) is estimated at US$5.4 billion, with a terminal value of US$18 billion. Discounting these cash flows at a cost of equity of 7.5% results in a total equity value of US$14 billion, or US$28.00 per share.

Comparing this intrinsic value to the current share price of US$26.46, Mosaic appears to be undervalued by approximately 39%. However, it is essential to consider the assumptions and inputs used in the DCF model, as they can significantly impact the valuation. For instance, changes in the discount rate or growth assumptions can lead to different intrinsic value estimates.



In conclusion, based on the two-stage DCF model and the provided financial data, The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) appears to be potentially undervalued. However, investors should be aware of the assumptions and inputs used in the valuation and consider other factors, such as market sentiment and industry trends, when making investment decisions. As always, it is crucial to conduct thorough research and consider multiple valuation methods before investing in any company.